Rushing Yards 0.5 · Underdog
+34.2%
Edge, Over
- Fair Over
- 51.9%
- Fair Under
- 48.1%
- Break-even
- 17.7%
- Books' line
- 0.5
Fair odds: median of 3 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 0.5.
Underdog NFL edges: Higher/Lower lines against the books
Underdog prices each Higher/Lower pick on its own: a pick carries its own payout multiplier (1x on an even pick, less on a favourite, more on a longshot), and an entry pays the Standard or Flex table scaled by its picks' multipliers. NFL lines cover the week of games, from Thursday night through Monday, so a line can sit for days while injury news moves the books around it. Each line is matched to a sharp fair probability at the same number: PropLine's de-vigged price where one exists, or else the de-vigged median of at least two sportsbooks. The edge is that probability minus the break-even implied by the pick's own price, so a discounted pick has to clear a higher bar. It's an estimate, not a guarantee. Posted now: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and receptions.
Passing Touchdowns 1.5 · Underdog
+32.5%
Edge, Over
- Fair Over
- 65.8%
- Fair Under
- 34.2%
- Break-even
- 33.3%
- Books' line
- 2.5
Fair odds: median of 2 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 1.5.
Line gap: 1 below the books, which favors the Over. Every book's price
Rushing Yards 0.5 · Underdog
+32.0%
Edge, Over
- Fair Over
- 49.2%
- Fair Under
- 50.8%
- Break-even
- 17.2%
- Books' line
- 0.5
Fair odds: median of 3 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 0.5.
2,869 more lines behind Premium
Free accounts see a 3-line sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every pick'em line, every app, with filters.
Go PremiumPick'em edges compare a pick'em app's line with a sharp fair probability at the same line, and with the per-pick break-even of the app's published 2-pick payout. They are estimates of value, not guarantees. Lines and payouts change, and an app can pay a different multiplier on a given pick than its base table.
FAQ
How is an Underdog NFL edge measured?
Against the pick's own price. Each Underdog pick carries a per-pick multiplier, quoted as American odds, so its break-even is that price's implied probability, not one flat rate for every pick. A pick with no per-pick price gets no edge.
What hit rate does an Underdog NFL pick need to break even?
It depends on the pick. Underdog gives each pick its own multiplier, so the break-even is the probability that pick's price implies, not one rate for the board.
Which NFL props does this compare?
Any NFL player prop a pick'em app posts that sharp books also price at the same number, most often yardage, receptions and touchdowns.