Passing Yards over 274.5
Projection 299.3
+335
Kalshi
+37.89%
edge
Early line — projections still moving
Kalshi NFL picks
Ranked by how far our projection sits from the Kalshi price.
Passing Yards over 249.5
Projection 299.3
+194
Kalshi
+37.03%
edge
Early line — projections still moving
Passing Yards over 299.5
Projection 299.3
+614
Kalshi
+35.91%
edge
Early line — projections still moving
491 more Kalshi picks behind Premium
Free accounts see the top 3 picks. Premium unlocks every pick, every sport, every venue.
Go PremiumHow Kalshi prices NFL
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. Every contract settles at $1 or $0, so a 42¢ quote is a 42% implied probability with no sportsbook margin layered on top.
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
Kalshi lists player markets as "X or more" yes/no contracts rather than as an over/under line, so BeatVig converts each contract to the equivalent over price before comparing it to a sportsbook number.
Each pick above names the market, the line and the Kalshi price beside our projection for that stat, so you can see the gap before you take it. Markets we grade for NFL: anytime touchdown, kicking points, passing touchdowns, passing yards, receiving tds, receiving yards, receptions, rushing receiving yards, rushing tds, and rushing yards.
Kalshi NFL picks — FAQ
What are the best Kalshi NFL picks today?
The NFL props above, in order: each one is a Kalshi price that sits furthest from our own projection of that stat, biggest gap first. The list is rebuilt from live Kalshi prices, so it changes through the day.
How are these Kalshi picks chosen?
Each NFL prop we project is turned into a fair probability for the over and the under, and that is compared with what Kalshi is charging for the same outcome. The props where Kalshi's price implies a probability further from ours than a venue's cost can explain are the ones listed, best first. No pick is a prediction of a result.
Does Kalshi offer NFL player props?
Kalshi lists player markets as "X or more" yes/no contracts rather than as an over/under line, so BeatVig converts each contract to the equivalent over price before comparing it to a sportsbook number.
How do Kalshi's costs compare to sportsbook vig?
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
How do you compare a Kalshi price to another venue's?
Convert both quotes to the implied probability of the same outcome, which puts a contract price and an American price in the same unit. The cheaper venue is the one implying the lower probability for the side you want — that is exactly what the comparison page linked above does on every prop both venues price.