Receiving Yards under 19.5
Projection 10.3
-20367%67¢
Polymarket
Early line — projections still moving
Polymarket NFL picks
Ranked by how far our projection sits from the Polymarket price.
Receiving Yards under 29.5
Projection 12.9
-35578%78¢
Polymarket
Early line — projections still moving
Receiving Yards under 49.5
Projection 24.1
-35578%78¢
Polymarket
Early line — projections still moving
145 more Polymarket picks behind Premium
Free accounts see a 3-pick sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every pick, every sport, every venue.
Go PremiumHow Polymarket prices NFL
Polymarket is an order-book market: the price is whatever two traders agree on, and a share that settles at $1 quotes as a probability directly.
Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.
Polymarket runs deep liquidity on headline games and much thinner books on the rest of the slate, and its player-prop coverage is still filling in — check the size behind a quote, not just the quote.
Each pick above names the market, the line and the Polymarket price beside our projection for that stat, so you can see the gap before you take it. Markets we grade for NFL: anytime touchdown, extra points made, field goals made, kicking points, passing touchdowns, passing yards, receiving touchdowns, receiving yards, receptions, rushing receiving yards, rushing touchdowns, rushing yards, and sacks.
Polymarket NFL picks — FAQ
What are the best Polymarket NFL picks today?
The NFL props above, in order: each one is a Polymarket price that sits furthest from our own projection of that stat, biggest gap first. The list is rebuilt from live Polymarket prices, so it changes through the day.
How are these Polymarket picks chosen?
Each NFL prop we project is turned into a fair probability for the over and the under, and that is compared with what Polymarket is charging for the same outcome. The props where Polymarket's price implies a probability further from ours than a venue's cost can explain are the ones listed, best first. No pick is a prediction of a result.
Does Polymarket offer NFL player props?
Polymarket runs deep liquidity on headline games and much thinner books on the rest of the slate, and its player-prop coverage is still filling in — check the size behind a quote, not just the quote.
How do Polymarket's costs compare to sportsbook vig?
Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.
How do you compare a Polymarket price to another venue's?
Convert both quotes to the implied probability of the same outcome, which puts a contract price and an American price in the same unit. The cheaper venue is the one implying the lower probability for the side you want — that is exactly what the comparison page linked above does on every prop both venues price.