NFL · Passing Touchdowns
Passing Touchdowns · best of 3 venues quoting it
NFL odds comparison — books vs prediction markets
Every NFL game line and player prop we price, compared across every sportsbook and every prediction market, and ranked by how much bigger a payout the best number is than the rest of the market's.
NFL · Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards · best of 3 venues quoting it
NFL · Moneyline
PIT @ NO · best of 4 venues quoting it
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Go PremiumHow this comparison works
Right now BeatVig is comparing 860 bets across NFL where one venue is paying measurably more than the rest of the market for the same outcome — game moneylines, spreads and totals alongside every player prop we price.
The number on each row is a payout comparison, not a difference in odds points. American prices are not on a linear scale — -108 and -110 are not "2 better" of anything — so every price is converted to decimal odds, the total return per unit staked, and the row reports how much bigger the best return is than the baseline.
The baseline is the median of the other venues on the same outcome, not the worst of them. Comparing against the worst price on the board would inflate every number on this page. The median is the price you would plausibly have taken had you not seen this comparison. A bet quoted by fewer than three venues in total is left off entirely — with one other price there is no market to be better than — and so is anything under half a percent, where the precision would be false.
Spreads and totals are only ever compared at the same line, and on the same side of it. A price on a 9.5-point favourite and a price on a 9.5-point underdog are opposite bets, not two quotes on one bet, so the board picks the line the most venues quote and compares within it. Player props are grouped by their exact line for the same reason.
Daily fantasy pick'em apps are excluded everywhere on BeatVig. They list nearly every market at the same price because their margin lives in the parlay multiplier, so including one would manufacture a gap on every row here.
Comparison, or an opinion?
This page compares prices and nothing else — it has no view on who wins, only on who is paying the most for the same bet. BeatVig publishes two rankings that are opinions, and they answer different questions:
- Prop odds edges — props where a prediction market is pricing an outcome cheaper than any sportsbook can. Use it when you want to know where the exchanges disagree with the books about probability.
- Prop edge tool — props where our own projection disagrees with the price on offer. Use it when you want a model's opinion rather than the market's.
- No-vig calculator — strip the margin out of any two prices yourself. Use it when you want to check a number this site does not price.
Odds comparison FAQ
How do I compare a prediction market price to a sportsbook price?
Both are converted to decimal odds — the total return per unit staked — which is the only unit the two can be compared in. This page does that for every NFL bet on the board and ranks them by how much more the best number pays than the median of the other venues.
Which sportsbooks and prediction markets are compared?
Every venue BeatVig prices, including Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig and ProphetX alongside the sportsbooks. If you have picked which books you track, this comparison uses only those, so every price shown is one you can actually take.
How much does taking the best price actually matter?
The biggest gaps on this board run into double-digit percentages of the payout, and even a routine 2-5% gap is larger than most bettors' entire long-run edge. It is the same bet either way — only the amount you are paid changes.
Does this cover player props as well as game lines?
Yes. Moneylines, spreads and totals are ranked alongside every player prop we price, because the best price on the board is the best price whatever kind of bet it is.
Is this the same as the BeatVig edges page?
No. The edges page finds props where a prediction market is pricing an outcome cheaper than any sportsbook, which is a disagreement about probability. This page has no opinion about the outcome — it only measures how much more the best available price pays than the rest of the market for the identical bet.
Why is a bet I can see on the board missing from this comparison?
A bet needs at least three venues quoting it before a median means anything, and the gap has to reach half a percent before it is worth stating. Anything below either threshold is left off rather than reported with false precision.