Projection 9.7 -15660.9%61¢ Kalshi
Early line — projections still moving
Prediction market
Right now BeatVig is comparing 299 Kalshi player-prop prices against the rest of the market. Kalshi has matched or beaten every other venue's price on 151 of the 299 live player-prop outcomes it is currently quoting — 50.5%.
Measured from the live board at 5:43 AM EST. This is a snapshot of prices on the board right now, not an average over any period of time.
Quoted, best-priced, and share, per sport.
| Sport | Quoted | Best price | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 299 | 151 | 50.5% |
| NBA | Too few live prices to measure yet. | ||
| MLB | Too few live prices to measure yet. | ||
Across 190 two-sided player-prop markets Kalshi currently prices, the two sides add up to about 9.0% above a fair 100% — that gap is Kalshi's bid/ask spread, not a fee: Kalshi charges its cost separately, on top of this, as described below. One-sided markets are excluded from this figure because there is no second price to add against the first.
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
Published fee schedule: Kalshi taker fee schedule, Jul 2026.
Kalshi operates through a CFTC-regulated exchange rather than a state sports-betting license, so its footprint differs from a sportsbook's and depends on the venue rather than on a state-by-state list. Check Kalshi's own site for where it currently operates before trading there.
Kalshi is currently quoting 9 markets across 1 sport: anytime touchdown, first touchdown, passing touchdowns, passing yards, receiving yards, receptions, rushing yards, touchdowns 2plus, and touchdowns 3plus.
Hard Rock Bet prices more of the same props as Kalshi than any other venue on the board right now — 144 props quoted by both. That is why this comparison is against Hard Rock Bet and not some other venue; it is re-chosen from the live board on every request.
Across the 144 props both venues price right now, Kalshi has the cheaper number on 120 and Hard Rock Bet has the cheaper number on 22; the rest are priced identically at both. That is 83% to Kalshi.
Every prop where our projection sits furthest from the Kalshi price, across every sport Kalshi is pricing. Biggest gap first.
Projection 9.7 -15660.9%61¢ Kalshi
Early line — projections still moving
Projection 15.2 -18665%65¢ Kalshi
+3.54%
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Early line — projections still moving
Projection 1.0 -19466%66¢ Kalshi
+2.85%
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Early line — projections still moving
Free accounts see a 3-bet sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every bet, every sport, every venue.
Go Premium14 bets ranked from the live Kalshi board at 5:43 AM EST, across 1 sport. A snapshot of the board right now, not a record over any period of time.
+EV bets today — a single price beating its fair line, live →
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. Every contract settles at $1 or $0, so a 42¢ quote is a 42% implied probability with no sportsbook margin layered on top.
Kalshi lists player markets as "X or more" yes/no contracts rather than as an over/under line, so BeatVig converts each contract to the equivalent over price before comparing it to a sportsbook number.
Because a Kalshi quote is already close to a probability, the edge shows up when a sportsbook has not moved a prop that Kalshi traders have already repriced.
Kalshi is a prediction market BeatVig prices across 1 sport. Kalshi has matched or beaten every other venue's price on 151 of the 299 live player-prop outcomes it is currently quoting — 50.5%. Its closest comparison on the board right now is Hard Rock Bet, the venue pricing the most of the same props. This page measures Kalshi's pricing against the rest of the market; BeatVig takes no affiliate money and does not recommend using it.
The table above is the fastest read: pick a sport and see how often Kalshi actually has the best number on a prop, out of everything it quotes, and how that share has moved against the rest of the market. "Cost" below it answers a different question — not whether Kalshi wins often, but what it costs when it does — and the best-bets list further down is Kalshi's own board ranked against our projections rather than against other venues, so a prop can show up there even on a venue with a middling best-price share.
Take Kalshi's own figure from the Cost section above: across 190 two-sided markets it currently prices, the two sides add up to about 9.0% over a fair 100% — that excess is the vig (also called the hold or the overround), and it's paid on every one of those markets whether the bet wins or loses. No-vig is the arithmetic that removes it: divide each side by the total so they sum to 100%, and what's left is the fair line — the number the market would offer if nobody were taking a cut. A price better than fair on the same outcome is positive expected value; worse than fair, and you're the one paying the margin. Kalshi's own figure moves as its board turns over, so treat it as a current reading rather than a fixed property of the venue.
Run any two of Kalshi's own prices through the no-vig calculator to see its fair line directly, or check +EV bets today for a live feed of prices already beating theirs rather than one you have to de-vig yourself. For Kalshi against Hard Rock Bet specifically — the venue pricing the most of the same props right now — the Kalshi vs Hard Rock Bet comparison below has the head-to-head count.
To see Kalshi's own figure ranked against every other venue BeatVig measures, not just the one this page compares it to, check the low-vig sportsbooks board.
Right now BeatVig is comparing 299 Kalshi player-prop prices against the rest of the market. Kalshi has matched or beaten every other venue's price on 151 of the 299 live player-prop outcomes it is currently quoting — 50.5%.
Kalshi has matched or beaten every other venue's price on 151 of the 299 live player-prop outcomes it is currently quoting — 50.5%.
Across 190 two-sided player-prop markets, Kalshi's two prices add up to about 9.0% above fair value — its bid/ask spread; Kalshi charges its fee separately, on top of this.
Kalshi is currently quoting anytime touchdown, first touchdown, passing touchdowns, passing yards, receiving yards, receptions, rushing yards, touchdowns 2plus, and touchdowns 3plus across 1 sport.
Hard Rock Bet. It prices 144 of the same player props as Kalshi right now, more than any other venue on the board, which is why the head-to-head above is against it. Kalshi has the cheaper number on 120 of them and Hard Rock Bet on 22.
14 props on Kalshi's board sit far enough from our own projection of the stat to be worth listing, biggest gap first in the board above. Only markets we project can appear there, and the list is rebuilt from live Kalshi prices on every request rather than published once a day.
For every player-prop outcome with at least three venues quoting it, BeatVig records which venue's price matched or beat every other venue's. The share above is that count divided by every outcome Kalshi is quoting, recomputed from the live board on every request.
No. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange: traders set the contract price between themselves and Kalshi charges a per-contract fee, rather than a sportsbook desk setting a line with its margin built in. Both let you take a side of a sports outcome; the pricing model behind the number is different.
A price comparison asks which venue is cheaper. The other question is whether the two sides of one bet can be backed at Kalshi and somewhere else at the same time for less than a certainty — which happens, rarely, and decays in minutes.