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Prediction market

Kalshi odds — how often it beats every other book

Right now BeatVig is comparing 930 Kalshi player-prop prices against the rest of the market. Kalshi has the best number on 688 of them — 74.0%.

Measured from the live board at 4:56 PM EDT. This is a snapshot of prices on the board right now, not an average over any period of time.

Kalshi by sport

Quoted, best-priced, and share, per sport.

Sport Quoted Best price Share
NBA Too few live prices to measure yet.
MLB 600 472 78.7%
NFL 330 216 65.5%

Cost

Across 2055 two-sided player-prop markets Kalshi currently prices, the two sides add up to about 8.24% above a fair 100% — that gap is Kalshi's hold. One-sided markets are excluded from this figure because there is no second price to add against the first.

Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.

What Kalshi quotes

Kalshi is currently quoting 9 markets across 2 sports: hits, passing touchdowns, passing yards, rbis, receiving yards, receptions, rushing yards, strikeouts, and total bases.

Kalshi vs DraftKings

Kalshi and DraftKings do not currently overlap on enough live props to compare head to head.

Full Kalshi vs DraftKings comparison →

What Kalshi is

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. Every contract settles at $1 or $0, so a 42¢ quote is a 42% implied probability with no sportsbook margin layered on top.

Kalshi lists player markets as "X or more" yes/no contracts rather than as an over/under line, so BeatVig converts each contract to the equivalent over price before comparing it to a sportsbook number.

Because a Kalshi quote is already close to a probability, the edge shows up when a sportsbook has not moved a prop that Kalshi traders have already repriced.

Kalshi — FAQ

How often does Kalshi have the best price?

Kalshi has matched or beaten every other venue on 74.0% of the 930 player-prop outcomes it is currently quoting.

What is Kalshi's hold on player props?

Across 2055 two-sided player-prop markets, Kalshi's two prices add up to about 8.24% above fair value.

Which markets does Kalshi price?

Kalshi is currently quoting hits, passing touchdowns, passing yards, rbis, receiving yards, receptions, rushing yards, strikeouts, and total bases across 2 sports.

Is Kalshi cheaper than a prediction market?

Kalshi is itself a prediction market, so the comparison worth checking is against a sportsbook — see the DraftKings comparison above.

How does BeatVig measure this?

For every player-prop outcome with at least three venues quoting it, BeatVig records which venue's price matched or beat every other venue's. The share above is that count divided by every outcome Kalshi is quoting, recomputed from the live board on every request.

Kalshi picks by sport