NFL prop lines move most on Wednesday through Friday as injury reports come out, and again on Sunday morning when inactives are announced about 90 minutes before kickoff. When a starter is ruled out, the backup's yardage and reception lines jump, and the first book to react is often the one the rest follow. Below are the props that moved most in the last hour, with the price then and now at every book, the book that moved first, and steam moves.
-41.4 pts
Over implied probability 57.4% → 16.0%
Shortening
Moved first:
Novig
Fri 7:18 PM ET
· 0 books followed
| Book | Line | Then | Now | Prob. change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig |
220.5 → 299.5 | -13557.4%57¢ | +52516%16¢ | -41.4 pts |
+31.5 pts
Over implied probability 50.5% → 82.0%
Drifting
Moved first:
Novig
Fri 7:08 PM ET
· 0 books followed
| Book | Line | Then | Now | Prob. change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig |
70.5 → 39.5 | -10250.5%50¢ | -45682%82¢ | +31.5 pts |
-24.3 pts
Over implied probability 76.2% → 51.9%
Drifting
Moved first:
ProphetX
Fri 7:29 PM ET
· 0 books followed
| Book | Line | Then | Now | Prob. change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX |
10.5 | -32076.2%76¢ | -10851.9%52¢ | -24.3 pts |
Free accounts see a 3-move sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every move, every book, and the window, market, direction and steam filters.
Go PremiumEach row is one player and market at its main line, the line most sportsbooks are quoting. For each book, BeatVig compares the Over price it shows now on that line with the price it showed when the window opened, and shows the Over's implied probability then and now. The change is in percentage points of implied probability, so a move at -110 and a move at +300 are measured on the same scale, and a negative change means the market now thinks the Over is less likely. Shortening means the Over pays less than it did, and drifting means it pays more. If a book moved onto or off the main line, the direction comes from the line: a higher Over line means the market is leaning toward the Over. Alternate lines, quotes a book had not touched for more than a day, and moves smaller than half a point are left out.
The first mover is the earliest book in the window to move in the row's direction, and "followed" counts the other books that moved the same way. Steam is the odds feed's own label for a fast, sharp repricing; BeatVig shows it as reported and does not infer it from the size of a move. Only props on games that have not started are included.
Mostly because of injury news. Practice reports, game-time decisions and the inactive list released about 90 minutes before kickoff change who gets the snaps, targets and carries, and books reprice the affected players' props within minutes.
A fast, sharp repricing of the same prop at several books in a short span, usually after respected bettors hit one book first. BeatVig marks a move as steam only when its odds feed labels it that way.
687 NFL props moved in the last hour, and the biggest move was a 47.9-point drop in Over probability. The board reads live prices on every page load.
