NFL player prop hit rates
Passing, rushing and receiving yards, receptions and anytime TD lines, checked against each player's last 5, 10 and 20 games.
Sorted by last-10 over hit rate, highest first. Ties go to the player with more games on file.
Kalshi
BetMGM
- L5
- Over 100% 5/5
- Under 0% 0/5
- L10
- Over 90% 9/10
- Under 10% 1/10
- L20
- Over 90% 18/20
- Under 10% 2/20
Hard Rock Bet
ProphetX
- L5
- Over 100% 5/5
- Under 0% 0/5
- L10
- Over 90% 9/10
- Under 10% 1/10
- L20
- Over 60% 12/20
- Under 40% 8/20
Novig
- L5
- Over 100% 5/5
- Under 0% 0/5
- L10
- Over 90% 9/10
- Under 10% 1/10
- L20
- Over 80% 16/20
- Under 20% 4/20
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Go PremiumHow NFL hit rates work
NFL teams play once a week, so a 20-game window can reach back into last season. Each row takes today's main line on passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions or an anytime touchdown and counts how many of the player's recent games cleared it. A quarterback who threw for 250 or more in 8 of his last 10 games shows 80% on a 249.5 line.
More NFL props and odds
NFL hit rate FAQ
What does an NFL receiving yards hit rate show?
How many of the player's recent games went over today's receiving yards line. 7/10 on 64.5 means he had 65 or more yards in 7 of his last 10 games.
How is the anytime touchdown hit rate counted?
A game counts when the player scored a rushing or receiving touchdown. Passing touchdowns do not count, which matches how sportsbooks settle the bet.
Do preseason games count toward NFL hit rates?
No. Preseason games and games where the player recorded no stats are left out, so a last-5 rate is five real games.