Kalshi vs DraftKings arbitrage

Kalshi and DraftKings are the two venues most people have open at the same time, and they are the two that disagree most often. DraftKings posts a number its trading desk is willing to take both sides of; Kalshi shows whatever two traders last agreed on. When a Kalshi contract drifts a few cents on thin volume and the DraftKings line has not moved, the yes side at one venue and the no side at the other can briefly add up to less than a certainty. That is the whole of what this page watches for.

The two boards move on different clocks. DraftKings repricing is driven by the money it is taking and by the other books it watches, so a prop can sit at the same number for an hour. Kalshi repricing is driven by whoever crosses the spread next, which on a quiet market can be one trader with a strong opinion. Neither is wrong — they are answering to different pressures — and the window between them is where a two-sided position opens.

The constraint on this pair is size, and it is on the Kalshi side. DraftKings will take a normal stake at the number it posted; a Kalshi contract at a good price may have forty contracts behind it and nothing underneath. Check the depth on the Kalshi leg before you place the DraftKings one, because filling the book side first and then finding the exchange side gone leaves you holding a one-sided bet at a price you only accepted as half of a pair. DraftKings also limits accounts it decides are trading rather than betting, and a stake pattern that only ever takes the side Kalshi has moved away from is the pattern that gets noticed.

Kalshi odds today. Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.

DraftKings odds today. DraftKings' margin is inside the price. You pay it on every bet you place, whether that bet wins or loses.

Leave this page open — the board above rescans itself as Kalshi's and DraftKings's prices move, so a position that opens while you're reading appears on its own rather than needing a reload. Right now the two are both quoting 2+ Touchdowns, 3+ Touchdowns, Anytime Touchdown, First Touchdown, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Receiving Yards, Receptions, Rushing Yards, Moneyline, Spread, and Total, which is the only ground a position between them can come from.

What a card here actually means

A fair line would put Kalshi's price and DraftKings's price on opposite sides of the same bet at exactly 100% of a certainty between them. This board only prints a card when the two real prices, net of both venues' fees, add up to less than that — the gap between 100% and what they actually sum to is the arbitrage, and the stake split tells you how to size each leg so both sides return the same amount whichever one wins. On a Kalshi vs DraftKings position that return is fixed rather than probable — expected value (EV) of a certain kind rather than a probable one, which is why it's usually smaller than a single-sided bet's edge.

Kalshi's leg is the one with a finite order book behind it on this Kalshi vs DraftKings pair — check its depth before you place the DraftKings side, since it's the side that can fill at a worse price or disappear while you're placing the second leg. Run Kalshi and DraftKings's exact numbers through the arbitrage calculator before you place either leg — the fee table above uses one fixed example, and your own prices won't match it exactly. For every other pair BeatVig tracks, see arbitrage bets today.