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Two venues, one bet

Kalshi vs DraftKings arbitrage

Whether the two sides of one bet can be held at Kalshi and DraftKings at the same time for less than a certainty — measured after both venues have been paid.

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Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and DraftKings?

Kalshi and DraftKings are the two venues most people have open at the same time, and they are the two that disagree most often. DraftKings posts a number its trading desk is willing to take both sides of; Kalshi shows whatever two traders last agreed on. When a Kalshi contract drifts a few cents on thin volume and the DraftKings line has not moved, the yes side at one venue and the no side at the other can briefly add up to less than a certainty. That is the whole of what this page watches for.

The two boards move on different clocks. DraftKings repricing is driven by the money it is taking and by the other books it watches, so a prop can sit at the same number for an hour. Kalshi repricing is driven by whoever crosses the spread next, which on a quiet market can be one trader with a strong opinion. Neither is wrong — they are answering to different pressures — and the window between them is where a two-sided position opens.

What the fees do to a Kalshi and DraftKings position

One example, the same two posted prices on every pair page, put through these two venues' own published schedules.

A worked two-sided position at Kalshi and DraftKings, before and after each venue's published fee
Leg Price Implied Venue fee Net cost
Kalshi +112 47.17% 2¢ per $1 49.17%
DraftKings -104 50.98% none 50.98%
Both sides — 98.15% — 100.15%

On the posted numbers, +112 at Kalshi against -104 at DraftKings is a position worth $1.85 per $100.00 staked. Kalshi charges 2¢ per $1 on its leg, and DraftKings takes nothing separate on its leg. Once Kalshi and DraftKings have both been paid there is nothing left: the two sides cost 100.15% of a certainty between them, so holding both would cost $0.15 rather than return anything. A calculator that ignores the Kalshi vs DraftKings fee schedules would have reported the $1.85 and stopped.

Fees are stated in dollars per $1 of potential payout, which is the one unit both models fit in — a per-contract trading fee and a commission charged on winnings are otherwise not comparable. Schedules: Kalshi — Kalshi taker fee schedule, Jul 2026; DraftKings — no separate fee.

Run your own numbers in the arbitrage calculator →

Live Kalshi and DraftKings positions

These decay in minutes. An arbitrage is a snapshot of two prices that were live moments ago, and it decays in minutes — often in seconds once either venue notices. Confirm BOTH prices at BOTH venues before staking either leg. A position with one leg filled and the other gone is not an arbitrage; it is a one-sided bet you did not intend to make. Venues also limit, void or refuse stakes at their discretion, so the profit is guaranteed by the arithmetic and by nothing else.

Kalshi and DraftKings are both quoting Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Pitcher Outs, RBIs, Receptions, Strikeouts, Total Bases, Moneyline, Spread, and Total on the board right now, and a two-sided position can only exist inside that overlap.

No arbitrage between Kalshi and DraftKings on the board right now

Premium shows both sides of each position: the bet, the venue and price for each leg, how to split a $100.00 stake, and what it returns either way. The count above is live and is usually zero — arbitrage is rare, which is the point of watching for it.

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Taking one: what goes wrong on this pair

The constraint on this pair is size, and it is on the Kalshi side. DraftKings will take a normal stake at the number it posted; a Kalshi contract at a good price may have forty contracts behind it and nothing underneath. Check the depth on the Kalshi leg before you place the DraftKings one, because filling the book side first and then finding the exchange side gone leaves you holding a one-sided bet at a price you only accepted as half of a pair. DraftKings also limits accounts it decides are trading rather than betting, and a stake pattern that only ever takes the side Kalshi has moved away from is the pattern that gets noticed.

Kalshi. Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.

DraftKings. DraftKings' margin is inside the price. You pay it on every bet you place, whether that bet wins or loses.

Kalshi vs DraftKings arbitrage FAQ

Can you arbitrage between Kalshi and DraftKings?

Yes. Kalshi contracts and DraftKings prices settle on the same real-world outcomes, so buying yes at one venue and the opposite side at the other is a two-sided position whenever the two prices add up to less than a certainty. It is legal on both venues and neither prohibits it, though DraftKings may limit an account it decides is trading rather than betting.

How often do Kalshi and DraftKings disagree enough to arbitrage?

Rarely, and for a short time. Both boards are watched by people doing exactly this, so a position that is worth taking is usually gone within minutes. The live count on this page is the honest answer at this moment and is zero most of the time.

Does the Kalshi fee cancel out a Kalshi vs DraftKings arbitrage?

Often, yes. Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee that is largest on contracts priced near 50 cents, which is exactly where most two-sided positions sit, and DraftKings charges nothing separate because its margin is already inside its price. A position that looks profitable on the posted numbers can be a loss once the Kalshi fee is paid, which is why every figure on this page is net of it.

Will DraftKings limit me for arbitrage betting?

It can. DraftKings reserves the right to restrict stake sizes on any account, and consistently taking only the side of a market that has moved against the book is the behaviour that attracts a limit. Kalshi does not limit accounts for trading in one direction, because it makes its money on volume rather than on the outcome.

Which side should I place first on a Kalshi and DraftKings arbitrage?

Place the Kalshi leg first. It is the side with a finite order book behind it, so it is the side that can disappear or fill at a worse average price, while DraftKings will honour its posted number for a normal stake.

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