NFL Trends & Matchups

The softest matchups, hottest hit rates, team trends and biggest price moves on today's NFL board — in one place.

Updated 15 minutes ago

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Softest matchups this week

Jakobi Meyers

WR · JAX vs TEN · Week 10

Receiving Yards 41.5

TEN allows 217.4 to WRs (#1)

Emmett Johnson

RB · KC vs ATL · Week 10

Rushing Yards 14.5

ATL allows 157.6 to RBs (#1)

Brian Thomas

WR · JAX vs TEN · Week 10

Receiving Yards 9.5

TEN allows 217.4 to WRs (#1)

195 more matchups behind Premium

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Hottest hit rates

Dallas Turner

LB · Solo Tackles 1.5

O -13056.5%57¢ Bet99

U +10050%50¢ Bet99

L5: Over 80% 4/5; Under 20% 1/5
L10: Over 90% 9/10; Under 10% 1/10
L20: Over 70% 14/20; Under 30% 6/20

Foster Moreau

TE · Receptions 0.5

O -12255%55¢ Polymarket

U +12045.5%45¢ Bet99

L5: Over 100% 5/5; Under 0% 0/5
L10: Over 90% 9/10; Under 10% 1/10
L20: Over 90% 18/20; Under 10% 2/20

John Metchie

WR · Receiving Yards 7.5

O +10050%50¢ Novig

U -10751.7%52¢ Courtside

L5: Over 100% 5/5; Under 0% 0/5
L10: Over 90% 9/10; Under 10% 1/10
L20: Over 80% 16/20; Under 20% 4/20

Dallas Turner

LB · Solo Tackles 1.5

O -13056.5%57¢ Bet99

U +10050%50¢ Bet99

L5: Over 80% 4/5; Under 20% 1/5
L10: Over 90% 9/10; Under 10% 1/10
L20: Over 70% 14/20; Under 30% 6/20

Dallas Turner

LB · Solo Tackles 1.5

O -13056.5%57¢ Bet99

U +10050%50¢ Bet99

L5: Over 80% 4/5; Under 20% 1/5
L10: Over 90% 9/10; Under 10% 1/10
L20: Over 70% 14/20; Under 30% 6/20

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Team trends

Buffalo Bills

Moneyline · Won

88%

7-1

San Francisco 49ers

Moneyline · Won

88%

7-1

Chicago Bears

Moneyline · Won

78%

7-2

Las Vegas Raiders

Game total · Over

78%

7-2

Denver Broncos

Against the spread · Covered

78%

7-2

Pushes are excluded. See a team's full page for the home/away split.

Biggest price moves

Keenan Allen

Anytime Touchdown o0.5

+10.1 pts

Over implied probability 22.7% → 32.8%

Shortening

Moved first: ProphetX Fri 11:53 PM ET · 0 books followed

Prices by book (2)

Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown Over: price at the start of the window and now, and the change in implied probability, by book
Book	Line	Then	Now	Prob. change
ProphetX	0.5	+34022.7%23¢	+20532.8%33¢	+10.1 pts
Fanatics Sportsbook	0.5	+36021.7%22¢	+37021.3%21¢	-0.5 pts

Aaron Jones

Rushing Attempts o8.5

-8.8 pts

Over implied probability 60.0% → 51.2%

Drifting

Moved first: Elabet Fri 11:48 PM ET · 1 book followed

Prices by book (3)

Aaron Jones Rushing Attempts Over: price at the start of the window and now, and the change in implied probability, by book
Book	Line	Then	Now	Prob. change
Elabet	8.5	-15060%60¢	-10551.2%51¢	-8.8 pts
Sportzino	8.5	-15060%60¢	-11052.4%52¢	-7.6 pts
Novig	8.5	+12045.5%45¢	+11746.1%46¢	+0.6 pts

Emmett Johnson

First Touchdown o0.5

+6.0 pts

Over implied probability 8.0% → 14.0%

Shortening

Moved first: Kalshi Fri 11:59 PM ET · 1 book followed

Prices by book (2)

Emmett Johnson First Touchdown Over: price at the start of the window and now, and the change in implied probability, by book
Book	Line	Then	Now	Prob. change
Kalshi	0.5	+11508%8¢	+61414%14¢	+6.0 pts
Polymarket	0.5	+80911%11¢	+56715%15¢	+4.0 pts

Keenan Allen

Anytime Touchdown o0.5

+10.1 pts

Over implied probability 22.7% → 32.8%

Shortening

Moved first: ProphetX Fri 11:53 PM ET · 0 books followed

Prices by book (2)

Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown Over: price at the start of the window and now, and the change in implied probability, by book
Book	Line	Then	Now	Prob. change
ProphetX	0.5	+34022.7%23¢	+20532.8%33¢	+10.1 pts
Fanatics Sportsbook	0.5	+36021.7%22¢	+37021.3%21¢	-0.5 pts

Keenan Allen

Anytime Touchdown o0.5

+10.1 pts

Over implied probability 22.7% → 32.8%

Shortening

Moved first: ProphetX Fri 11:53 PM ET · 0 books followed

Prices by book (2)

Keenan Allen Anytime Touchdown Over: price at the start of the window and now, and the change in implied probability, by book
Book	Line	Then	Now	Prob. change
ProphetX	0.5	+34022.7%23¢	+20532.8%33¢	+10.1 pts
Fanatics Sportsbook	0.5	+36021.7%22¢	+37021.3%21¢	-0.5 pts

750 more price moves behind Premium

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More NFL research

In short

This page brings together NFL prop hit rates, team-level market trends, live price movement and defense-vs-position matchups from BeatVig's own boards — a starting point, not a separate data source. Each section links to its full board for every market, book and filter.

NFL trends FAQ

What counts as a "trend" on this page?

A hit rate, a team's record against a betting market, or a price move measured over a set window on BeatVig's own board — never a hand-picked storyline.

Is the full ranking free?

A free account sees a sample from each board; Premium unlocks every row, filter and market.

How often does this page update?

Hit rates and price moves read the live board on every request; team trends and defense matchups refresh as new games finish.