Can you arbitrage between Polymarket and DraftKings?
Polymarket charges the smallest taker fee of any venue on this site, which makes it the one pairing where a thin two-sided position survives the arithmetic. Against DraftKings, whose margin is already inside the price it posts, a Polymarket leg costs a fraction of a percent to take. The catch is that a Polymarket quote is only as real as the size behind it.
Polymarket is an order book with no desk behind it, so its price is the last thing two traders agreed on and nothing obliges anyone to keep quoting it. On a heavily traded game that produces a price as sharp as any book's. On a quiet market it produces a price that looks excellent and represents one resting order. DraftKings, by contrast, is always quoting, always takeable, and slower to move. Positions between them appear when Polymarket trades through a level DraftKings has not followed.
What the fees do to a Polymarket and DraftKings position
One example, the same two posted prices on every pair page, put through these two venues' own published schedules.
| Leg | Price | Implied | Venue fee | Net cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | +112 | 47.17% | 1.25¢ per $1 | 48.42% |
| DraftKings | -104 | 50.98% | none | 50.98% |
| Both sides | — | 98.15% | — | 99.40% |
On the posted numbers, +112 at Polymarket against -104 at DraftKings is a position worth $1.85 per $100.00 staked. Polymarket charges 1.25¢ per $1 on its leg, and DraftKings takes nothing separate on its leg. Once Polymarket and DraftKings have both been paid it is worth $0.60, which is the figure that means anything. A calculator that stops at the posted prices would have credited this Polymarket vs DraftKings position with $1.25 more than it pays.
Fees are stated in dollars per $1 of potential payout, which is the one unit both models fit in — a per-contract trading fee and a commission charged on winnings are otherwise not comparable. Schedules: Polymarket — Polymarket sports theta, raised 0.03 -> 0.05 Jul 2026; DraftKings — no separate fee.
Live Polymarket and DraftKings positions
These decay in minutes. An arbitrage is a snapshot of two prices that were live moments ago, and it decays in minutes — often in seconds once either venue notices. Confirm BOTH prices at BOTH venues before staking either leg. A position with one leg filled and the other gone is not an arbitrage; it is a one-sided bet you did not intend to make. Venues also limit, void or refuse stakes at their discretion, so the profit is guaranteed by the arithmetic and by nothing else.
Polymarket and DraftKings are both quoting 2+ Touchdowns, Anytime Touchdown, Earned Runs, Hits, Hits + Runs + RBIs, Hits Allowed, Passing Completions, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Pitcher Outs, RBIs, Receptions, Strikeouts, Total Bases, Moneyline, Spread, and Total on the board right now, and a two-sided position can only exist inside that overlap.
No arbitrage between Polymarket and DraftKings on the board right now
Premium shows both sides of each position: the bet, the venue and price for each leg, how to split a $100.00 stake, and what it returns either way. The count above is live and is usually zero — arbitrage is rare, which is the point of watching for it.
Go PremiumTaking one: what goes wrong on this pair
Read the order book, not the headline. The number Polymarket shows is the best resting price, and taking more than the size behind it walks up the book until the average price you paid is worse than the one that made the position look worth taking. On a $500 leg that difference routinely exceeds the whole margin. The settlement clock also differs: DraftKings grades a prop within minutes of the whistle, while a Polymarket market resolves on its own schedule, so the two legs of one position are not capital you get back at the same time.
Polymarket. Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.
DraftKings. DraftKings' margin is inside the price. You pay it on every bet you place, whether that bet wins or loses.
Polymarket vs DraftKings arbitrage FAQ
Can you arbitrage between Polymarket and DraftKings?
Yes, where both price the same outcome. Polymarket shares settle at one dollar or nothing and DraftKings prices the same events, so opposite sides at the two venues form a two-sided position whenever the prices add up to less than a certainty.
Is Polymarket cheaper than DraftKings for arbitrage?
On fees, yes: Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent and is capped, while a DraftKings price carries the book's whole margin inside it. On execution it is the harder of the two, because a Polymarket price is only good for the size resting behind it.
What is the biggest risk in a Polymarket and DraftKings arbitrage?
Slippage on the Polymarket leg. The displayed price applies only to the orders currently resting at it, so a stake larger than that size fills at a worse average and can erase the margin the position was taken for.
Do Polymarket and DraftKings settle at the same time?
No. DraftKings usually grades a settled market within minutes of the event ending, while a Polymarket market resolves on its own schedule, so the capital in the two legs is not released together.
Next
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