Polymarket vs DraftKings arbitrage

Polymarket charges the smallest taker fee of any venue on this site, which makes it the one pairing where a thin two-sided position survives the arithmetic. Against DraftKings, whose margin is already inside the price it posts, a Polymarket leg costs a fraction of a percent to take. The catch is that a Polymarket quote is only as real as the size behind it.

Polymarket is an order book with no desk behind it, so its price is the last thing two traders agreed on and nothing obliges anyone to keep quoting it. On a heavily traded game that produces a price as sharp as any book's. On a quiet market it produces a price that looks excellent and represents one resting order. DraftKings, by contrast, is always quoting, always takeable, and slower to move. Positions between them appear when Polymarket trades through a level DraftKings has not followed.

Read the order book, not the headline. The number Polymarket shows is the best resting price, and taking more than the size behind it walks up the book until the average price you paid is worse than the one that made the position look worth taking. On a $500 leg that difference routinely exceeds the whole margin. The settlement clock also differs: DraftKings grades a prop within minutes of the whistle, while a Polymarket market resolves on its own schedule, so the two legs of one position are not capital you get back at the same time.

Polymarket odds today. Polymarket's taker fee is a fraction of a percent, which makes its headline quote very close to the all-in cost and often the cheapest of the exchanges in the middle of the price range.

DraftKings odds today. DraftKings' margin is inside the price. You pay it on every bet you place, whether that bet wins or loses.

Leave this page open — the board above rescans itself as Polymarket's and DraftKings's prices move, so a position that opens while you're reading appears on its own rather than needing a reload. Right now the two are both quoting 2+ Touchdowns, 3+ Touchdowns, Anytime Touchdown, First Touchdown, Passing Completions, Passing Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Receiving Yards, Receptions, Rushing Receiving Yards, Rushing Yards, Moneyline, Spread, and Total, which is the only ground a position between them can come from.

What a card here actually means

A fair line would put Polymarket's price and DraftKings's price on opposite sides of the same bet at exactly 100% of a certainty between them. This board only prints a card when the two real prices, net of both venues' fees, add up to less than that — the gap between 100% and what they actually sum to is the arbitrage, and the stake split tells you how to size each leg so both sides return the same amount whichever one wins. On a Polymarket vs DraftKings position that return is fixed rather than probable — expected value (EV) of a certain kind rather than a probable one, which is why it's usually smaller than a single-sided bet's edge.

Polymarket's leg is the one with a finite order book behind it on this Polymarket vs DraftKings pair — check its depth before you place the DraftKings side, since it's the side that can fill at a worse price or disappear while you're placing the second leg. Run Polymarket and DraftKings's exact numbers through the arbitrage calculator before you place either leg — the fee table above uses one fixed example, and your own prices won't match it exactly. For every other pair BeatVig tracks, see arbitrage bets today.