Kalshi
There is one honest answer and it is not a system: you come out ahead by taking prices better than the outcome is worth. Here is how Kalshi makes that possible — and where those prices are right now.
Every price is a probability in disguise. A -110 price says the outcome happens 52.38% of the time; a 42¢ contract says 42%. You have an edge when the price you can take implies a lower probability than the outcome actually has — that gap, repeated across many bets, is the only thing that makes a bettor profitable. Nothing else does, and no amount of confidence in a pick substitutes for it.
The practical version is simpler. When two venues price the same outcome and one is cheaper, the cheaper price is the better bet, whatever you think of the outcome. That is the entire idea behind this site, and it is the only claim on this page.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. Every contract settles at $1 or $0, so a 42¢ quote is a 42% implied probability with no sportsbook margin layered on top.
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
Kalshi lists player markets as "X or more" yes/no contracts rather than as an over/under line, so BeatVig converts each contract to the equivalent over price before comparing it to a sportsbook number.
Because a Kalshi quote is already close to a probability, the edge shows up when a sportsbook has not moved a prop that Kalshi traders have already repriced.
A live one, from the board below. Scoot Henderson assists over 3.5 is +10848.1%48¢ at Kalshi and +11047.6%48¢ at Bet99. Kalshi is not the cheaper of those two prices right now. The +3.63% on the row is a different measurement: how far the Kalshi price sits below the de-vigged fair price for this outcome, which is what the board ranks on.
A gap that size does not make a bet a winner. It makes it a cheaper bet, and cheaper bets are what compound. Results over any short run are dominated by variance, and a run of losses tells you nothing about whether you were getting the better price.
BeatVig is showing 228 props where Kalshi beats the best sportsbook price right now, across NFL, NBA and MLB.
Kalshi
+10848.1%48¢
vs
Bet99
+11047.6%48¢
· -0.46pp vs Bet99
fair 51.7% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
+3.63pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Kalshi
-10451%51¢
vs
Stoiximan
-11052.4%52¢
· +1.4pp vs Stoiximan
fair 54.5% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
+3.54pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Kalshi
+10848.1%48¢
vs
FanDuel
+10449%49¢
· +0.94pp vs FanDuel
fair 51.5% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
+3.4pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Free accounts see a 3-edge sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every Kalshi edge, every sport, every market.
Go PremiumSome people do and most people do not, and no page can tell you which you will be. What is measurable is the price you pay: taking the cheaper of two prices on the same outcome improves your expected result, and paying the more expensive one worsens it.
Compare the Kalshi quote to what every sportsbook is charging for the identical outcome, converted to implied probability so the two are the same unit. BeatVig does that conversion continuously and lists the props where Kalshi is currently the cheaper side.
On many props it is, because a sportsbook builds its margin into the line while Kalshi charges separately from the price. It is not cheaper on everything, and the only reliable way to know is to check the specific prop you want.
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
No. A better price improves the long-run expectation of a bet and changes nothing about whether that individual bet wins. Short-run results are dominated by variance, and bets can and do lose at any price.
BeatVig compares prices. It is not a sportsbook or an exchange, accepts no wagers and sells no picks. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, or read our responsible gambling page.
