Rushing Attempts 6.5 · PrizePicks
-4.1%
Edge, Under
- Fair Over
- 46.4%
- Fair Under
- 53.6%
- Break-even
- 57.7%
- Books' line
- 6.5
Fair odds: median of 6 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 6.5.
PrizePicks NFL edges this week vs sharp odds
PrizePicks pays a fixed multiplier on More/Less entries: a Power Play needs every pick to hit and pays 3x for two picks up to 37.5x for six, while a Flex Play still pays when one or two picks miss. NFL lines cover the week of games, from Thursday night through Monday, so a line can sit for days while injury news moves the books around it. Each line is matched to a sharp fair probability at the same number: PropLine's de-vigged price where one exists, or else the de-vigged median of at least two sportsbooks. The edge is that probability minus the 57.7% a 2-pick Power Play at 3x needs per pick. It's an estimate, not a guarantee. Posted now: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and receptions.
Rushing Yards 48.5 · PrizePicks
-4.4%
Edge, Under
- Fair Over
- 46.6%
- Fair Under
- 53.4%
- Break-even
- 57.7%
- Books' line
- 49.5
Fair odds: median of 2 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 48.5.
Line gap: 1 below the books, which favors the Over. Every book's price
Rushing Yards 19.5 · PrizePicks
-4.7%
Edge, Over
- Fair Over
- 53.1%
- Fair Under
- 46.9%
- Break-even
- 57.7%
- Books' line
- 20.5
Fair odds: median of 3 sportsbooks, de-vigged, at 19.5.
Line gap: 1 below the books, which favors the Over. Every book's price
1,058 more lines behind Premium
Free accounts see a 3-line sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every pick'em line, every app, with filters.
Go PremiumPick'em edges compare a pick'em app's line with a sharp fair probability at the same line, and with the per-pick break-even of the app's published 2-pick payout. They are estimates of value, not guarantees. Lines and payouts change, and an app can pay a different multiplier on a given pick than its base table.
FAQ
How do I read a PrizePicks NFL edge?
It is the fair probability of the better side minus the 57.7% a 2-pick Power Play needs per pick. Flex Plays pay on partial hits, so they have no single per-pick bar.
What hit rate does a PrizePicks NFL pick need to break even?
57.7% per pick on a 2-pick Power Play at 3x, falling to 54.7% on a 6-pick Power Play at 37.5x.
Which NFL props does this compare?
Any NFL player prop a pick'em app posts that sharp books also price at the same number, most often yardage, receptions and touchdowns.