Expected Value (EV)
Expected value (EV) on a bet is how much a price is paying above, or below, what BeatVig's de-vigged fair line says the outcome is worth — expressed as a percentage, where positive means the price is cheaper than fair.
Worked example
If BeatVig's fair line says a prop has a 45% chance of going over and a sportsbook's price only implies 43% on the over, that's +2 percentage points of EV — the sportsbook is charging less than BeatVig's own fair estimate says the over is worth.
Right now on BeatVig
PropLine pushes an alert the instant a sportsbook price beats its de-vigged fair line by 2% or more, across every sport BeatVig covers.
In short
Expected value (EV) on a bet is how much a price is paying above, or below, what BeatVig's de-vigged fair line says the outcome is worth — expressed as a percentage, where positive means the price is cheaper than fair. If BeatVig's fair line says a prop has a 45% chance of going over and a sportsbook's price only implies 43% on the over, that's +2 percentage points of EV — the sportsbook is charging less than BeatVig's own fair estimate says the over is worth.
Expected Value (EV) — FAQ
What does EV mean in betting?
EV (expected value) is how much a price is paying above or below BeatVig's de-vigged fair line, as a percentage. A positive-EV bet is priced to pay more than it's worth over a long run of bets like it — that says nothing about whether any single bet wins.
How does BeatVig calculate EV%?
edge = fair_probability − venue_implied_probability, shown net of the venue's own trading fee when the cheaper side is a prediction market rather than a sportsbook.
Does a positive-EV bet always win?
No. EV describes long-run average payout across many similar bets, not any one outcome — a +EV bet can still lose, and a -EV bet can still win.
Where can I see live +EV bets right now?
BeatVig's +EV feed pushes an alert the instant a sportsbook price beats its de-vigged fair line by 2% or more, across every sport it covers.