Jake Ferguson

ARI @ DAL

Week 8 Sun 1:00 PM ET Moneyline ARI +28526%26¢ Novig DAL -28674.1%74¢ Betfair Ex Spread ARI +7 -10250.5%50¢ LowVig DAL -7 +10249.5%50¢ ProphetX Total Over -10050%50¢ Kalshi Under +10050%50¢ Miseojeu

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Selected prop

Receiving Yards

Line

o/u 15.5

Over at o/u 15.5

-10551.2%51¢

Fanatics Sportsbook

Under at o/u 15.5

-11653.7%54¢

Dst Propbuilder

Projection: 15.2 yds
Consensus: -11453.3%53¢
Range: 0.5–59.5

Recent form

Last 10 games vs o/u 15.5

10 20 30 50 75 100

Edge -0.3 yds L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 13/20 All 27/38 (71%)

Where to bet

18 lines · every venue we track

Best Over · any line 14.5 -10451%51¢

Kalshi

EV — (model disagrees with history) · L10 4/10 · All 28/38

Best Under · any line 14.5 -10451%51¢

Novig

EV — (model disagrees with history) · L10 6/10 · All 10/38

Line o/u 15.5 · 7 venues

Tick marks the line most venues quote.

▲ most books

Best O: -75088.2%88¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 0.5: 36/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 9/10 L20 18/20 All 36/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-75088.2%88¢	———

Best O: -65086.7%87¢
Best U: +37521.1%21¢
Hit rate vs 1.5: 36/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 9/10 L20 18/20 All 36/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-65086.7%87¢	+37521.1%21¢

Best O: -60085.7%86¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 2.5: 36/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 9/10 L20 18/20 All 36/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-60085.7%86¢	———

Best O: -45081.8%82¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 4.5: 36/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 9/10 L20 18/20 All 36/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-45081.8%82¢	———
ProphetX	-52083.9%84¢	———

Best O: -37578.9%79¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 5.5: 35/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 8/10 L20 17/20 All 35/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-37578.9%79¢	———

Best O: -17864%64¢
Best U: +15040%40¢
Hit rate vs 9.5: 33/38

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 33/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	-21368.1%68¢	+11746.1%46¢
ProphetX	-23069.7%70¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	-17864%64¢	+15040%40¢	64%
Polymarket	-18665%65¢	+11346.9%47¢	65%

Best O: -11753.9%54¢
Best U: -10751.7%52¢
Hit rate vs 13.5: 28/38

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 13/20 All 28/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Bovada	-12054.5%55¢	-11052.4%52¢
DraftKings	-11753.9%54¢	-10751.7%52¢

Best O: -10451%51¢
Best U: -10451%51¢
Hit rate vs 14.5: 28/38

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 13/20 All 28/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
BetRivers	-12455.4%55¢	-11753.9%54¢
FanDuel	-11353.1%53¢	-11353.1%53¢
Fliff	-12555.6%56¢	-12054.5%55¢
Novig	-11353.1%53¢	-10451%51¢
Pinnacle	-11453.3%53¢	-11052.4%52¢
ProphetX	-11252.8%53¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	-10451%51¢	———	51%

Best O: -10551.2%51¢
Best U: -11653.7%54¢
Hit rate vs 15.5: 27/38

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 13/20 All 27/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
BetRivers	-11854.1%54¢	-12255%55¢
DraftKings	-10851.9%52¢	-11653.7%54¢
Dst Propbuilder	-11152.6%53¢	-11653.7%54¢
Fanatics Sportsbook	-10551.2%51¢	-12555.6%56¢
Novig	-11653.7%54¢	-21768.5%68¢
Rebet	-12154.8%55¢	-12956.3%56¢
Tonybet	-11854.1%54¢	-12255%55¢

Best O: -10551.2%51¢
Best U: -11052.4%52¢
Hit rate vs 16.5: 25/38

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 11/20 All 25/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
BetMGM	-10551.2%51¢	-12555.6%56¢
Sportzino	-12054.5%55¢	-12555.6%56¢
Stoiximan	-11152.6%53¢	-11052.4%52¢

Best O: -10851.9%52¢
Best U: -11553.5%53¢
Hit rate vs 17.5: 25/38

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 11/20 All 25/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Bet99	-11052.4%52¢	-12054.5%55¢
Sportzino	-11553.5%53¢	-13056.5%57¢
Stoiximan	-10851.9%52¢	-11553.5%53¢

Best O: +15040%40¢
Best U: -13357.1%57¢
Hit rate vs 19.5: 22/38

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 9/20 All 22/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	———	-18564.9%65¢
Novig	+13043.5%43¢	———
ProphetX	+13243.1%43¢	———
Rebet	———	-13357.1%57¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+15040%40¢	-17063%63¢	40%
Polymarket	+13842%42¢	-17864%64¢	42%

Best O: +14540.8%41¢
Best U: -20066.7%67¢
Hit rate vs 20.5: 22/38

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 9/20 All 22/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	+14540.8%41¢	-20066.7%67¢

Best O: +23330%30¢
Best U: -25772%72¢
Hit rate vs 24.5: 17/38

L3 0/3 L5 0/5 L10 1/10 L20 8/20 All 17/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
ProphetX	+20532.8%33¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+23330%30¢	-25772%72¢	30%

Best O: +31724%24¢
Best U: -37679%79¢
Hit rate vs 29.5: 16/38

L3 0/3 L5 0/5 L10 1/10 L20 7/20 All 16/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	———	-45081.8%82¢
Novig	+27027%27¢	-45682%82¢
Rebet	+31624%24¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+31724%24¢	-37679%79¢	24%
Polymarket	+30025%25¢	-40080%80¢	25%

Best O: +61414%14¢
Best U: -90090%90¢
Hit rate vs 39.5: 13/38

L3 0/3 L5 0/5 L10 1/10 L20 5/20 All 13/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+47117.5%18¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+61414%14¢	-90090%90¢	14%

Best O: +10119%9¢
Best U: -190095%95¢
Hit rate vs 49.5: 8/38

L3 0/3 L5 0/5 L10 0/10 L20 3/20 All 8/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+64113.5%13¢	-656798.5%99¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+10119%9¢	-190095%95¢	9%

Best O: +33482.9%3¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 59.5: 6/38

L3 0/3 L5 0/5 L10 0/10 L20 1/20 All 6/38

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Rebet	+33482.9%3¢	———

Game log

Most recent first · Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson game log, Receiving Yards
Date	Opp	Receiving Yards	Vs 15.5
Oct 26	@ PHI	0.0	Miss
Oct 18	@ GB	13.0	Miss
Oct 8	vs TB	19.0	Hit
Oct 4	@ HOU	11.0	Miss
Sep 27	vs BAL	23.0	Hit
Sep 20	vs WAS	43.0	Hit
Sep 13	@ NYG	6.0	Miss
Jan 4	@ NYG	5.0	Miss
Dec 25	@ WAS	6.0	Miss
Dec 21	vs LAC	19.0	Hit