Chris Olave — Receptions
Projection 6.0
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (5.5)
Teal bars cleared 5.5 — 7 of 10 (70%).
Chris Olave Receptions 5.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 56.6% against 57.3% (an edge of -0.7 points) and is now 41.7% against 73.0% (-31.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 9:40 PM | 56.6% | 57.3% | -0.7 |
| Sep 18, 1:10 PM | 56.0% | 56.3% | -0.3 |
| Sep 18, 6:00 PM | 54.7% | 55.6% | -0.9 |
| Sep 18, 7:10 PM | 54.1% | 55.0% | -0.9 |
| Sep 18, 9:00 PM | 55.9% | 53.1% | 2.8 |
| Sep 18, 10:50 PM | 55.1% | 53.1% | 2 |
| Sep 18, 11:00 PM | 49.8% | 53.1% | -3.3 |
| Sep 18, 11:10 PM | 50.2% | 53.1% | -2.9 |
| Sep 18, 11:50 PM | 50.8% | 53.1% | -2.3 |
| Sep 19, 1:20 AM | 51.4% | 52.1% | -0.7 |
| Sep 19, 1:30 AM | 52.1% | 51.9% | 0.2 |
| Sep 19, 3:20 AM | 52.6% | 51.0% | 1.6 |
| Sep 19, 8:00 PM | 50.0% | 51.9% | -1.9 |
| Sep 20, 6:50 AM | 50.0% | 53.3% | -3.3 |
| Sep 20, 10:40 AM | 50.0% | 50.8% | -0.8 |
| Sep 20, 11:00 AM | 49.0% | 50.4% | -1.4 |
| Sep 20, 1:30 PM | 50.4% | 50.7% | -0.3 |
| Sep 20, 3:40 PM | 49.0% | 49.3% | -0.3 |
| Sep 20, 4:20 PM | 47.0% | 48.5% | -1.5 |
| Sep 20, 5:00 PM | 46.0% | 49.0% | -3 |
| Sep 20, 5:10 PM | 40.5% | 42.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 20, 5:20 PM | 41.3% | 40.0% | 1.3 |
| Sep 20, 5:30 PM | 63.9% | 65.0% | -1.1 |
| Sep 20, 6:30 PM | 57.2% | 60.0% | -2.8 |
| Sep 20, 6:40 PM | 43.3% | 74.0% | -30.7 |
| Sep 20, 6:50 PM | 43.6% | 42.9% | 0.7 |
| Sep 20, 7:00 PM | 36.7% | 28.0% | 8.7 |
| Sep 20, 7:10 PM | 41.7% | 73.0% | -31.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
3.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2h ago | |
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
3.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 12h ago | |
| Courtside | 6.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
Unlock fair value and every gap with Premium16 more books behind Premium
Free accounts see 3 books on a prop. Premium shows every book and exchange we price, so you can take the best number.
Go PremiumUpdated about 2 hours ago.