Jordan Addison — Receptions
Projection 5.7
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (5.5)
Teal bars cleared 5.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Jordan Addison Receptions 5.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 20.8% against 21.0% (an edge of -0.2 points) and is now 17.2% against 19.0% (-1.8 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 5:20 PM | 20.8% | 21.0% | -0.2 |
| Sep 20, 5:30 PM | 17.8% | 21.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 9:40 PM | 14.3% | 16.9% | -2.6 |
| Sep 27, 8:10 PM | 13.0% | 17.0% | -4 |
| Sep 27, 9:00 PM | 19.0% | 74.0% | -55 |
| Sep 27, 9:10 PM | 21.2% | 30.0% | -8.8 |
| Sep 27, 10:00 PM | 45.0% | 39.1% | 5.9 |
| Sep 27, 10:10 PM | 38.2% | 40.0% | -1.8 |
| Sep 27, 10:30 PM | 21.4% | 23.0% | -1.6 |
| Sep 27, 10:40 PM | 17.2% | 19.0% | -1.8 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
5.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 8m ago | |
 Novig
|
5.5 | Novig does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Novig last repriced this 1d ago | |
 ProphetX
|
5.5 | ProphetX does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | ProphetX last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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