David Montgomery — Receptions
Projection 2.3
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 0 of 10 (0%).
David Montgomery Receptions 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 36.4% against 38.0% (an edge of -1.6 points) and is now 28.0% against 29.0% (-1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 5:00 PM | 36.4% | 38.0% | -1.6 |
| Sep 20, 6:00 PM | 37.5% | 37.0% | 0.5 |
| Sep 20, 6:20 PM | 35.7% | 35.0% | 0.7 |
| Sep 20, 7:20 PM | 53.8% | 58.0% | -4.2 |
| Sep 20, 7:40 PM | 43.2% | 46.9% | -3.7 |
| Sep 20, 7:50 PM | 36.2% | 39.6% | -3.4 |
| Sep 27, 6:00 PM | 18.0% | 31.0% | -13 |
| Sep 27, 7:40 PM | 29.5% | 51.9% | -22.4 |
| Sep 30, 10:10 PM | 28.0% | 29.0% | -1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
2.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2d ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
2.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 4m ago | |
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 59m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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