Patrick Mahomes

KC @ DEN

Week 8 Sun 4:25 PM ET Moneyline KC -10952.2%52¢ Betfair Ex DEN +10848.1%48¢ Novig Spread KC -1.5 +10648.5%49¢ Polymarket DEN +1.5 -10651.5%51¢ Novig Total Over -10451%51¢ Kalshi Under +10349.3%49¢ ProphetX

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Selected prop

Passing Yards

Line

o/u 220.5

Over at o/u 220.5

-11052.4%52¢

Fanatics Sportsbook

Under at o/u 220.5

-12054.5%55¢

Fanatics Sportsbook

Projection: 220.8 yds
Consensus: -11553.5%53¢
Range: 46.5–349.5

Recent form

Last 10 games vs o/u 220.5

10 20 30 50 75 100

Edge +0.3 yds L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 27/39 (69%)

Where to bet

21 lines · every venue we track

Best Over · any line 199.5 -16962.8%63¢ Rebet

EV — (model disagrees with history) · L10 6/10 · All 29/39

Best Under · any line 199.5 +17136.9%37¢ Rebet

EV — (model disagrees with history) · L10 4/10 · All 10/39

Line o/u 220.5 · 3 venues

Tick marks the line most venues quote.

▲ most books

Best O: -11453.3%53¢
Best U: -11353.1%53¢
Hit rate vs 46.5: 39/39

L3 3/3 L5 5/5 L10 10/10 L20 20/20 All 39/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Courtside	-11453.3%53¢	-11353.1%53¢

Best O: ———
Best U: -11453.3%53¢
Hit rate vs 107.5: 39/39

L3 3/3 L5 5/5 L10 10/10 L20 20/20 All 39/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Courtside	———	-11453.3%53¢

Best O: ———
Best U: +18495.1%5¢
Hit rate vs 124.5: 39/39

L3 3/3 L5 5/5 L10 10/10 L20 20/20 All 39/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Rebet	———	+18495.1%5¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Polymarket	———	+33523%23¢

Best O: -80989%89¢
Best U: +75311.7%12¢
Hit rate vs 149.5: 39/39

L3 3/3 L5 5/5 L10 10/10 L20 20/20 All 39/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	-95390.5%91¢	+17037%37¢
ProphetX	-100090.9%91¢	———
Rebet	———	+75311.7%12¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	-80989%89¢	+56715%15¢	89%

Best O: -34577.5%78¢
Best U: +34822.3%22¢
Hit rate vs 174.5: 34/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 8/10 L20 18/20 All 34/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	-45682%82¢	+15639.1%39¢
ProphetX	-45582%82¢	———
Rebet	-34577.5%78¢	+34822.3%22¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	-37679%79¢	———	79%
Polymarket	-40080%80¢	+25728%28¢	80%

Best O: -16962.8%63¢
Best U: +17136.9%37¢
Hit rate vs 199.5: 29/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 29/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
ProphetX	-22068.8%69¢	———
Rebet	-16962.8%63¢	+17136.9%37¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	-18665%65¢	+16338%38¢	65%
Polymarket	-18665%65¢	+15040%40¢	65%

Best O: -17563.6%64¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 205.5: 29/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 29/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-17563.6%64¢	———

Best O: -17063%63¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 206.5: 29/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 29/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	-17063%63¢	———

Best O: ———
Best U: +11546.5%47¢
Hit rate vs 209.5: 29/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 29/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Hard Rock Bet	———	+11546.5%47¢

Best O: -12054.5%55¢
Best U: -11052.4%52¢
Hit rate vs 215.5: 28/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 28/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Fanatics Sportsbook	-12054.5%55¢	-11052.4%52¢

Best O: -12555.6%56¢
Best U: -12054.5%55¢
Hit rate vs 219.5: 27/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 27/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Sportzino	-12555.6%56¢	-12054.5%55¢

Best O: -11052.4%52¢
Best U: -12054.5%55¢
Hit rate vs 220.5: 27/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 27/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Fanatics Sportsbook	-11052.4%52¢	-12054.5%55¢
ProphetX	-11252.8%53¢	———
Sportzino	-12054.5%55¢	-12555.6%56¢

Best O: -10851.9%52¢
Best U: -10952.2%52¢
Hit rate vs 223.5: 27/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 15/20 All 27/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Courtside	-11353.1%53¢	-11152.6%53¢
DraftKings	-11353.1%53¢	-11152.6%53¢
Novig	-10952.2%52¢	-11252.8%53¢
ProphetX	-10851.9%52¢	-10952.2%52¢

Best O: +11346.9%47¢
Best U: -10851.9%52¢
Hit rate vs 224.5: 26/39

L3 2/3 L5 4/5 L10 6/10 L20 14/20 All 26/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Dst Propbuilder	-11252.8%53¢	-11553.5%53¢
ProphetX	-10751.7%52¢	-12054.5%55¢
Rebet	+11346.9%47¢	-11453.3%53¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+10449%49¢	-10851.9%52¢	49%
Polymarket	-10050%50¢	-11353.1%53¢	50%

Best O: -10851.9%52¢
Best U: -32276.3%76¢
Hit rate vs 226.5: 25/39

L3 1/3 L5 3/5 L10 5/10 L20 13/20 All 25/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	-10851.9%52¢	-32276.3%76¢

Best O: +11047.6%48¢
Best U: -15560.8%61¢
Hit rate vs 236.5: 25/39

L3 1/3 L5 3/5 L10 5/10 L20 13/20 All 25/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Fliff	+11047.6%48¢	-15560.8%61¢

Best O: +21631.6%32¢
Best U: -21368.1%68¢
Hit rate vs 249.5: 22/39

L3 1/3 L5 2/5 L10 4/10 L20 12/20 All 22/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+17037%37¢	-44381.6%82¢
ProphetX	+17236.8%37¢	———
Rebet	+21631.6%32¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+18635%35¢	-21368.1%68¢	35%
Polymarket	+18635%35¢	-30075%75¢	35%

Best O: +40719.7%20¢
Best U: -42681%81¢
Hit rate vs 274.5: 11/39

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 6/20 All 11/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+28526%26¢	-123392.5%92¢
ProphetX	+27027%27¢	———
Rebet	+40719.7%20¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+33523%23¢	-42681%81¢	23%
Polymarket	+33523%23¢	-45682%82¢	23%

Best O: +81510.9%11¢
Best U: -83389.3%89¢
Hit rate vs 299.5: 6/39

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 3/20 All 6/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+52516%16¢	-267896.4%96¢
ProphetX	+49016.9%17¢	———
Rebet	+81510.9%11¢	-83389.3%89¢

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+61414%14¢	-101191%91¢	14%
Polymarket	+56715%15¢	-101191%91¢	15%

Best O: +15676%6¢
Best U: -156794%94¢
Hit rate vs 324.5: 3/39

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 2/20 All 3/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
Novig	+77011.5%11¢	-1240099.2%99¢
Rebet	+15676%6¢	———

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under	Implied %
Kalshi	+10119%9¢	-156794%94¢	9%
Polymarket	+10119%9¢	-190095%95¢	9%

Best O: +31153.1%3¢
Best U: ———
Hit rate vs 349.5: 2/39

L3 0/3 L5 1/5 L10 2/10 L20 2/20 All 2/39

Sportsbooks

Sportsbooks pricing this line
Venue	Over	Under
ProphetX	+74011.9%12¢	———
Rebet	+31153.1%3¢	———

Game log

Most recent first · Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes game log, Passing Yards
Date	Opp	Passing Yards	Vs 220.5
Oct 25	@ SEA	165.0	Miss
Oct 18	vs LAC	272.0	Hit
Oct 4	@ LVR	225.0	Hit
Sep 27	@ MIA	246.0	Hit
Sep 20	vs IND	382.0	Hit
Sep 14	vs DEN	184.0	Miss
Dec 14	vs LAC	189.0	Miss
Dec 7	vs HOU	160.0	Miss
Nov 27	@ DAL	261.0	Hit
Nov 23	vs IND	352.0	Hit