Head to head
Which venue is currently the cheaper side of the same NFL props, de-vigged and counted live.
Right now BeatVig prices 141 NFL props at both. Kalshi is the cheaper side 82% of the time (116 of 141), and Hard Rock Bet is cheaper on 22. This is the board as it stands at 03 Nov 08:27 ET, not an average over any period — BeatVig measures live prices and keeps no price history.
Kalshi is an exchange: traders set the price between themselves and the fee sits outside it. Hard Rock Bet is a sportsbook: it posts its own line and keeps its margin inside the two prices. Which of them is cheaper is not a constant and is not something this page asserts: every prop Kalshi and Hard Rock Bet both price right now is converted to the implied probability of the same outcome and counted below, so the answer moves with the two boards rather than with the date this page was written.
Counted above: every prop Kalshi prices lower than Hard Rock Bet. Listed below: the ones that also beat a de-vigged fair price, which is the stricter test and the only one worth acting on.
Kalshi -10451%51¢ vs Hard Rock Bet -12555.6%56¢ · +4.58pp vs Hard Rock Bet
fair 52.8% · Pinnacle, multiplicative devig
+1.84pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Kalshi +27027%27¢ vs Hard Rock Bet +22031.3%31¢ · +4.22pp vs Hard Rock Bet
fair 28.7% · edge -0.32pp (worst case -2.64pp) — this edge is -0.32 percentage points under the de-vigging method BeatVig publishes and as little as -2.64 under the least flattering of the 4 methods that fit Kalshi's own two-sided prices
+1.68pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 2.0 percentage points of it
Kalshi +61414%14¢ vs Hard Rock Bet +52516%16¢ · +1.99pp vs Hard Rock Bet
fair 15.5% · Kalshi, multiplicative devig
+1.52pp
was the raw edge before Kalshi's
fee, which takes 1.0 percentage points of it
Free accounts see a 3-edge sample from below the top of the board. Premium unlocks every prop where Kalshi beats Hard Rock Bet, in every sport.
Go PremiumRight now Kalshi is the cheaper price on 82% of the 141 NFL props both venues price, measured live off the current boards. Right now the best price gap is Ja'Kobi Lane Receptions: Kalshi pays -104 against Hard Rock Bet's -125.
Across the 141 NFL props priced at both venues right now, Kalshi is the cheaper side on 116 and Hard Rock Bet is cheaper on 22; the rest are priced identically at both. Neither venue is cheaper on everything, and this is a live count of the current boards rather than an average over time.
Every quote from both venues is converted to the implied probability of the same outcome, so a contract price and an American price become the same unit. The cheaper venue is the one implying the lower probability for the side you want.
Kalshi charges a per-contract trading fee instead of building a margin into the line. The fee is a curve, not a flat rake: it peaks at roughly 1.75¢ on a contract priced near 50¢ and shrinks toward zero at both extremes, and maker fees are a quarter of taker fees.
Hard Rock Bet's margin sits inside the two prices rather than arriving as a separate commission, so it is paid on every bet whether that bet wins or loses. How much of a given price is margin varies by market — convert both sides to implied probability and the amount they total above 100% is what the book is charging.
It is computed from the live board every time the page loads, so it reflects the prices both venues are showing at that moment rather than a snapshot taken on an earlier day.
