Lucas Spence — Hits
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Lucas Spence Hits 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 58.1% against 61.5% (an edge of -3.4 points) and is now 25.2% against 27.0% (-1.8 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2:10 AM | 58.1% | 61.5% | -3.4 |
| Sep 24, 2:20 AM | 59.0% | 60.9% | -1.9 |
| Sep 24, 2:30 AM | 56.6% | 63.0% | -6.4 |
| Sep 24, 2:40 AM | 48.1% | 53.5% | -5.4 |
| Sep 24, 2:50 AM | 51.5% | 53.9% | -2.4 |
| Sep 24, 3:00 AM | 52.9% | 55.5% | -2.6 |
| Sep 24, 3:10 AM | 51.5% | 56.5% | -5 |
| Sep 24, 3:20 AM | 41.7% | 39.1% | 2.6 |
| Sep 24, 3:30 AM | 42.2% | 40.6% | 1.6 |
| Sep 24, 3:40 AM | 41.2% | 41.0% | 0.2 |
| Sep 24, 4:00 AM | 22.2% | 26.0% | -3.8 |
| Sep 24, 4:30 AM | 22.2% | 27.5% | -5.3 |
| Sep 24, 4:40 AM | 25.2% | 27.0% | -1.8 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 2m ago | ||
 ProphetX
|
0.5 | ProphetX does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | ProphetX last repriced this 1h ago | |
 Smarkets
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Smarkets last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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