Hagen Smith — Strikeouts
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 8 of 10 (80%).
Hagen Smith Strikeouts 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 50.0% against 76.0% (an edge of -26 points) and is now 48.0% against 51.9% (-3.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 3:10 AM | 50.0% | 76.0% | -26 |
| Sep 29, 3:20 AM | 49.0% | 76.0% | -27 |
| Sep 29, 4:20 AM | 50.0% | 64.0% | -14 |
| Sep 29, 6:00 AM | 50.0% | 53.1% | -3.1 |
| Sep 29, 7:50 AM | 48.0% | 51.9% | -3.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fanatics Sportsbook
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 10m ago | ||
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 5m ago | ||
|
Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 12m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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