How this price has moved at 0.5
Leo Rivas Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.2% against 56.1% (an edge of -4.9 points) and is now 53.1% against 60.0% (-6.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 10:10 PM | 51.2% | 56.1% | -4.9 |
| Sep 24, 10:20 PM | 51.0% | 56.5% | -5.5 |
| Sep 25, 1:50 AM | 51.5% | 62.0% | -10.5 |
| Sep 25, 2:00 AM | 51.0% | 67.0% | -16 |
| Sep 25, 2:10 AM | 55.4% | 81.5% | -26.1 |
| Sep 25, 10:30 PM | 52.0% | 57.3% | -5.3 |
| Sep 26, 2:10 AM | 51.9% | 59.5% | -7.6 |
| Sep 26, 2:20 AM | 51.9% | 56.5% | -4.6 |
| Sep 26, 2:30 AM | 52.0% | 58.0% | -6 |
| Sep 26, 2:40 AM | 51.6% | 60.5% | -8.9 |
| Sep 26, 2:50 AM | 46.0% | 39.1% | 6.9 |
| Sep 26, 3:00 AM | 38.2% | 42.9% | -4.7 |
| Sep 26, 3:10 AM | 37.5% | 39.1% | -1.6 |
| Sep 26, 3:20 AM | 38.5% | 41.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 26, 3:30 AM | 25.3% | 26.5% | -1.2 |
| Sep 26, 3:40 AM | 31.5% | 27.0% | 4.5 |
| Sep 26, 3:50 AM | 25.3% | 25.5% | -0.2 |
| Sep 26, 4:00 AM | 23.2% | 28.0% | -4.8 |
| Sep 26, 4:10 AM | 23.2% | 22.6% | 0.6 |
| Sep 26, 9:20 AM | 53.1% | 60.0% | -6.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 2h ago | ||
|
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 5h ago | ||
| Courtside | 0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 5h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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