Javier Baez — Hits + Runs + RBIs
How this price has moved at 1.5
Javier Baez Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 30.8% against 29.0% (an edge of 1.8 points) and is now 42.9% against 42.0% (0.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 12:30 AM | 30.8% | 29.0% | 1.8 |
| Sep 18, 12:40 AM | 27.8% | 30.0% | -2.2 |
| Sep 18, 12:50 AM | 19.1% | 98.0% | -78.9 |
| Sep 18, 1:00 AM | 20.3% | 32.1% | -11.8 |
| Sep 18, 1:10 AM | 17.5% | 21.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 18, 1:20 AM | 17.5% | 24.0% | -6.5 |
| Sep 18, 1:30 AM | 12.2% | 37.0% | -24.8 |
| Sep 18, 1:50 AM | 11.4% | 98.0% | -86.6 |
| Sep 18, 2:00 AM | 10.8% | 10.0% | 0.8 |
| Sep 21, 7:50 PM | 42.0% | 44.1% | -2.1 |
| Sep 21, 8:40 PM | 40.9% | 41.0% | -0.1 |
| Sep 21, 9:20 PM | 42.9% | 42.0% | 0.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 19m ago | |
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 1h ago | |
 DraftKings
|
1.5 | DraftKings does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 41m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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