Gavin Sheets — Total Bases
Projection 1.0
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
Gavin Sheets Total Bases 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 56.3% against 56.5% (an edge of -0.2 points) and is now 53.1% against 53.9% (-0.8 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 1:20 PM | 56.3% | 56.5% | -0.2 |
| Sep 27, 1:30 PM | 50.0% | 56.5% | -6.5 |
| Sep 27, 1:40 PM | 52.7% | 56.1% | -3.4 |
| Sep 27, 4:20 PM | 54.4% | 60.6% | -6.2 |
| Sep 27, 6:40 PM | 55.4% | 61.5% | -6.1 |
| Sep 30, 2:30 PM | 51.8% | 52.2% | -0.4 |
| Sep 30, 4:00 PM | 52.5% | 52.8% | -0.3 |
| Sep 30, 5:10 PM | 52.0% | 53.9% | -1.9 |
| Sep 30, 6:20 PM | 51.0% | 56.5% | -5.5 |
| Sep 30, 7:00 PM | 51.0% | 53.1% | -2.1 |
| Sep 30, 8:50 PM | 53.1% | 53.9% | -0.8 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Smarkets
|
0.5 | Smarkets does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Smarkets last repriced this 2h ago | |
 1xBet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | 1xBet last repriced this 11m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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