Nathaniel Lowe — Hits
Projection 0.9
+0.88pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
-11353.1%53¢
against
BetRivers's
-13457.3%57¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Nathaniel Lowe Hits 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 54.5% against 58.0% (an edge of -3.5 points) and is now 55.6% against 53.1% (2.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 10:30 AM | 54.5% | 58.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 23, 1:00 PM | 53.4% | 57.1% | -3.7 |
| Sep 23, 2:20 PM | 56.3% | 55.2% | 1.1 |
| Sep 23, 5:10 PM | 57.5% | 56.9% | 0.6 |
| Sep 23, 7:00 PM | 55.4% | 57.3% | -1.9 |
| Sep 23, 7:50 PM | 54.4% | 56.9% | -2.5 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 PM | 50.9% | 56.9% | -6 |
| Sep 23, 9:10 PM | 53.3% | 56.5% | -3.2 |
| Sep 23, 9:20 PM | 55.4% | 56.5% | -1.1 |
| Sep 23, 9:40 PM | 52.5% | 55.9% | -3.4 |
| Sep 23, 10:00 PM | 53.2% | 55.0% | -1.8 |
| Sep 23, 10:30 PM | 50.9% | 55.6% | -4.7 |
| Sep 23, 11:10 PM | 50.9% | 53.1% | -2.2 |
| Sep 23, 11:20 PM | 51.5% | 55.9% | -4.4 |
| Sep 23, 11:30 PM | 50.8% | 55.9% | -5.1 |
| Sep 23, 11:40 PM | 38.5% | 49.4% | -10.9 |
| Sep 23, 11:50 PM | 36.2% | 38.0% | -1.8 |
| Sep 24, 12:00 AM | 38.5% | 40.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 24, 12:10 AM | 39.0% | 39.1% | -0.1 |
| Sep 24, 12:20 AM | 39.2% | 44.1% | -4.9 |
| Sep 24, 12:30 AM | 26.9% | 26.0% | 0.9 |
| Sep 24, 12:40 AM | 26.2% | 30.0% | -3.8 |
| Sep 24, 12:50 AM | 26.4% | 28.0% | -1.6 |
| Sep 24, 1:00 AM | 27.1% | 35.0% | -7.9 |
| Sep 26, 4:10 AM | 61.9% | 67.2% | -5.3 |
| Sep 26, 5:00 AM | 62.5% | 66.7% | -4.2 |
| Sep 26, 5:10 AM | 62.0% | 67.2% | -5.2 |
| Sep 26, 7:10 AM | 62.8% | 63.2% | -0.4 |
| Sep 26, 8:20 AM | 62.5% | 65.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 26, 9:10 AM | 61.8% | 66.0% | -4.2 |
| Sep 26, 10:00 AM | 61.8% | 64.9% | -3.1 |
| Sep 26, 10:30 AM | 62.5% | 63.8% | -1.3 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 AM | 62.8% | 63.8% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 11:40 AM | 63.2% | 64.8% | -1.6 |
| Sep 26, 12:00 PM | 62.2% | 63.5% | -1.3 |
| Sep 26, 12:20 PM | 62.5% | 63.8% | -1.3 |
| Sep 26, 12:40 PM | 64.0% | 65.0% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 12:50 PM | 62.5% | 63.5% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 7:40 PM | 62.5% | 64.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 26, 8:00 PM | 63.0% | 64.0% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 9:30 PM | 59.5% | 63.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 26, 9:50 PM | 59.4% | 64.0% | -4.6 |
| Sep 26, 10:50 PM | 63.2% | 62.0% | 1.2 |
| Sep 26, 11:10 PM | 59.0% | 60.9% | -1.9 |
| Sep 26, 11:20 PM | 59.4% | 63.5% | -4.1 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 PM | 59.4% | 55.9% | 3.5 |
| Sep 26, 11:40 PM | 55.2% | 60.0% | -4.8 |
| Sep 26, 11:50 PM | 56.4% | 60.9% | -4.5 |
| Sep 27, 12:00 AM | 44.9% | 47.0% | -2.1 |
| Sep 27, 12:10 AM | 42.1% | 44.5% | -2.4 |
| Sep 27, 12:20 AM | 41.3% | 41.0% | 0.3 |
| Sep 27, 12:30 AM | 25.8% | 34.0% | -8.2 |
| Sep 27, 12:40 AM | 24.5% | 24.0% | 0.5 |
| Sep 27, 4:50 PM | 61.3% | 68.3% | -7 |
| Sep 27, 5:20 PM | 62.4% | 64.5% | -2.1 |
| Sep 27, 5:30 PM | 62.5% | 66.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 27, 5:40 PM | 63.2% | 64.0% | -0.8 |
| Sep 27, 7:00 PM | 62.5% | 65.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 27, 7:10 PM | 61.8% | 65.0% | -3.2 |
| Sep 27, 7:20 PM | 52.0% | 55.0% | -3 |
| Sep 27, 7:30 PM | 46.8% | 63.5% | -16.7 |
| Sep 27, 7:50 PM | 51.9% | 58.5% | -6.6 |
| Sep 27, 8:10 PM | 37.3% | 44.1% | -6.8 |
| Sep 27, 8:20 PM | 39.4% | 41.0% | -1.6 |
| Oct 1, 5:20 PM | 60.9% | 61.5% | -0.6 |
| Oct 1, 5:30 PM | 59.2% | 62.7% | -3.5 |
| Oct 1, 6:10 PM | 59.2% | 64.8% | -5.6 |
| Oct 2, 2:40 AM | 59.2% | 64.8% | -5.6 |
| Oct 2, 5:20 AM | 56.3% | 69.2% | -12.9 |
| Oct 2, 5:40 AM | 59.2% | 67.2% | -8 |
| Oct 2, 6:00 AM | 57.1% | 65.8% | -8.7 |
| Oct 2, 7:00 AM | 61.6% | 64.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 2, 10:40 AM | 56.3% | 63.8% | -7.5 |
| Oct 2, 11:30 AM | 53.5% | 61.5% | -8 |
| Oct 2, 11:40 AM | 53.6% | 58.7% | -5.1 |
| Oct 2, 12:00 PM | 57.5% | 58.7% | -1.2 |
| Oct 2, 12:40 PM | 55.5% | 58.7% | -3.2 |
| Oct 2, 3:00 PM | 57.5% | 78.3% | -20.8 |
| Oct 2, 4:10 PM | 54.5% | 60.3% | -5.8 |
| Oct 3, 1:50 PM | 56.3% | 63.0% | -6.7 |
| Oct 3, 9:40 PM | 57.5% | 60.6% | -3.1 |
| Oct 4, 2:00 PM | 55.4% | 64.8% | -9.4 |
| Oct 4, 5:20 PM | 56.1% | 64.8% | -8.7 |
| Oct 4, 5:30 PM | 56.3% | 56.9% | -0.6 |
| Oct 5, 1:10 PM | 56.3% | 56.1% | 0.2 |
| Oct 5, 2:10 PM | 56.3% | 56.3% | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2:20 PM | 57.5% | 56.1% | 1.4 |
| Oct 5, 5:00 PM | 55.6% | 62.0% | -6.4 |
| Oct 5, 5:20 PM | 55.9% | 57.6% | -1.7 |
| Oct 5, 5:30 PM | 56.3% | 55.9% | 0.4 |
| Oct 5, 5:40 PM | 57.5% | 57.4% | 0.1 |
| Oct 5, 5:50 PM | 56.3% | 57.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 5, 6:30 PM | 57.5% | 55.2% | 2.3 |
| Oct 5, 6:40 PM | 57.5% | 55.0% | 2.5 |
| Oct 5, 6:50 PM | 55.6% | 53.1% | 2.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
0.5 | BetMGM does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 7m ago | |
|
BetRivers
|
0.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 6m ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 12m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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