Nathan Eovaldi — Strikeouts
Projection 5.8
+0.34pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+13542.6%43¢
against
DraftKings's
+13342.9%43¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Nathan Eovaldi Strikeouts 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 46.4% against 52.6% (an edge of -6.2 points) and is now 45.5% against 46.5% (-1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:40 AM | 46.4% | 52.6% | -6.2 |
| Sep 26, 8:50 AM | 48.9% | 52.6% | -3.7 |
| Sep 26, 9:00 AM | 48.4% | 50.4% | -2 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 AM | 44.8% | 50.0% | -5.2 |
| Sep 26, 12:50 PM | 49.0% | 51.5% | -2.5 |
| Sep 26, 1:10 PM | 48.1% | 50.5% | -2.4 |
| Sep 26, 1:30 PM | 48.4% | 50.2% | -1.8 |
| Sep 26, 1:40 PM | 48.1% | 50.2% | -2.1 |
| Sep 26, 1:50 PM | 47.7% | 49.9% | -2.2 |
| Sep 26, 2:00 PM | 46.9% | 49.8% | -2.9 |
| Sep 26, 2:10 PM | 46.7% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Sep 26, 2:20 PM | 47.1% | 48.1% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 2:30 PM | 47.6% | 49.5% | -1.9 |
| Sep 26, 3:00 PM | 46.5% | 49.5% | -3 |
| Sep 26, 4:30 PM | 45.5% | 49.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 26, 5:00 PM | 44.8% | 49.5% | -4.7 |
| Sep 26, 5:40 PM | 45.0% | 49.0% | -4 |
| Sep 26, 5:50 PM | 43.7% | 48.5% | -4.8 |
| Sep 26, 6:00 PM | 45.1% | 46.5% | -1.4 |
| Sep 26, 6:10 PM | 44.6% | 46.0% | -1.4 |
| Sep 26, 6:20 PM | 42.5% | 47.2% | -4.7 |
| Sep 26, 6:30 PM | 45.5% | 46.5% | -1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
0.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 2h ago | |
|
Hard Rock Bet
|
1.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 39m ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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