Bailey Ober — Strikeouts
Projection 3.5
+1.35pp vs fair:
ProphetX
prices the over at
+13442.7%43¢
against
DraftKings's
+13442.7%43¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (4.5)
Teal bars cleared 4.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).
Bailey Ober Strikeouts 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 45.7% against 51.0% (an edge of -5.3 points) and is now 43.7% against 43.9% (-0.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 8:40 AM | 45.7% | 51.0% | -5.3 |
| Sep 26, 8:50 AM | 48.4% | 53.5% | -5.1 |
| Sep 26, 9:00 AM | 47.8% | 52.6% | -4.8 |
| Sep 26, 9:10 AM | 46.9% | 55.1% | -8.2 |
| Sep 26, 9:20 AM | 47.3% | 57.1% | -9.8 |
| Sep 26, 9:30 AM | 45.5% | 57.1% | -11.6 |
| Sep 26, 9:40 AM | 48.0% | 57.1% | -9.1 |
| Sep 26, 10:50 AM | 48.1% | 50.0% | -1.9 |
| Sep 26, 11:00 AM | 46.4% | 49.8% | -3.4 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 AM | 43.1% | 51.0% | -7.9 |
| Sep 26, 12:10 PM | 43.9% | 46.9% | -3 |
| Sep 26, 12:40 PM | 46.9% | 51.5% | -4.6 |
| Sep 26, 1:00 PM | 48.0% | 51.0% | -3 |
| Sep 26, 1:10 PM | 47.6% | 50.0% | -2.4 |
| Sep 26, 1:20 PM | 47.2% | 51.0% | -3.8 |
| Sep 26, 1:30 PM | 45.0% | 51.7% | -6.7 |
| Sep 26, 1:40 PM | 46.3% | 49.5% | -3.2 |
| Sep 26, 1:50 PM | 46.5% | 49.5% | -3 |
| Sep 26, 2:00 PM | 45.5% | 47.8% | -2.3 |
| Sep 26, 2:10 PM | 45.9% | 48.2% | -2.3 |
| Sep 26, 2:20 PM | 45.3% | 46.9% | -1.6 |
| Sep 26, 2:30 PM | 44.5% | 48.0% | -3.5 |
| Sep 26, 2:40 PM | 41.7% | 46.1% | -4.4 |
| Sep 26, 3:00 PM | 43.9% | 49.5% | -5.6 |
| Sep 26, 3:10 PM | 49.4% | 48.2% | 1.2 |
| Sep 26, 3:20 PM | 45.9% | 46.5% | -0.6 |
| Sep 26, 3:30 PM | 43.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Sep 26, 3:40 PM | 43.5% | 45.0% | -1.5 |
| Sep 26, 3:50 PM | 44.6% | 45.0% | -0.4 |
| Sep 26, 4:30 PM | 44.1% | 44.4% | -0.3 |
| Sep 26, 5:20 PM | 43.4% | 44.1% | -0.7 |
| Sep 26, 5:40 PM | 42.6% | 43.5% | -0.9 |
| Sep 26, 6:00 PM | 44.3% | 44.4% | -0.1 |
| Sep 26, 6:30 PM | 42.8% | 42.7% | 0.1 |
| Sep 26, 6:40 PM | 43.7% | 43.9% | -0.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hard Rock Bet
|
0.5 | Hard Rock Bet does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 15m ago | |
|
Hard Rock Bet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 15m ago | ||
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
1.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 42m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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