Projection 0.9
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 0 of 10 (0%).
Shohei Ohtani RBIs 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 40.5% against 38.0% (an edge of 2.5 points) and is now 39.2% against 37.0% (2.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 5:20 AM | 40.5% | 38.0% | 2.5 |
| Sep 23, 5:50 AM | 40.8% | 38.0% | 2.8 |
| Sep 23, 10:40 PM | 38.5% | 38.0% | 0.5 |
| Sep 23, 10:50 PM | 39.2% | 37.0% | 2.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 14m ago | |
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0.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 14m ago | |
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0.5 | ProphetX does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | ProphetX last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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