Patrick Bailey — Hits
Projection 0.7
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)
Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Patrick Bailey Hits 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.0% against 52.6% (an edge of -1.6 points) and is now 52.0% against 51.9% (0.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2:20 PM | 51.0% | 52.6% | -1.6 |
| Sep 23, 7:50 PM | 51.6% | 54.3% | -2.7 |
| Sep 23, 8:40 PM | 54.5% | 53.9% | 0.6 |
| Sep 23, 11:20 PM | 51.9% | 53.0% | -1.1 |
| Sep 23, 11:30 PM | 51.0% | 50.0% | 1 |
| Sep 23, 11:40 PM | 49.1% | 76.0% | -26.9 |
| Sep 24, 7:40 PM | 51.4% | 58.0% | -6.6 |
| Sep 24, 8:30 PM | 52.0% | 53.1% | -1.1 |
| Sep 24, 8:50 PM | 53.1% | 51.9% | 1.2 |
| Sep 24, 10:20 PM | 50.3% | 51.9% | -1.6 |
| Sep 24, 10:40 PM | 49.9% | 57.5% | -7.6 |
| Sep 24, 10:50 PM | 50.0% | 53.5% | -3.5 |
| Sep 24, 11:00 PM | 50.3% | 55.9% | -5.6 |
| Sep 24, 11:10 PM | 44.2% | 46.5% | -2.3 |
| Sep 24, 11:20 PM | 42.3% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Sep 24, 11:30 PM | 45.5% | 48.1% | -2.6 |
| Sep 24, 11:40 PM | 42.8% | 46.8% | -4 |
| Sep 24, 11:50 PM | 44.0% | 50.0% | -6 |
| Sep 25, 12:00 AM | 28.1% | 31.5% | -3.4 |
| Sep 25, 12:10 AM | 28.5% | 35.0% | -6.5 |
| Sep 25, 12:20 AM | 28.9% | 29.5% | -0.6 |
| Sep 25, 12:30 AM | 19.1% | 20.5% | -1.4 |
| Sep 25, 12:40 AM | 10.5% | 15.0% | -4.5 |
| Sep 26, 4:10 AM | 58.7% | 64.0% | -5.3 |
| Sep 26, 4:20 AM | 59.1% | 63.2% | -4.1 |
| Sep 26, 6:40 AM | 58.4% | 60.6% | -2.2 |
| Sep 26, 10:00 AM | 57.8% | 63.0% | -5.2 |
| Sep 26, 12:20 PM | 57.5% | 58.7% | -1.2 |
| Sep 26, 1:10 PM | 58.8% | 60.0% | -1.2 |
| Sep 26, 4:20 PM | 57.5% | 63.0% | -5.5 |
| Sep 26, 6:30 PM | 58.1% | 63.9% | -5.8 |
| Sep 26, 6:40 PM | 58.4% | 59.4% | -1 |
| Sep 26, 7:50 PM | 56.5% | 64.7% | -8.2 |
| Sep 26, 8:20 PM | 56.3% | 60.0% | -3.7 |
| Sep 26, 9:40 PM | 55.4% | 59.2% | -3.8 |
| Sep 26, 10:50 PM | 57.7% | 60.0% | -2.3 |
| Sep 26, 11:00 PM | 57.5% | 60.3% | -2.8 |
| Sep 26, 11:10 PM | 53.8% | 59.0% | -5.2 |
| Sep 26, 11:20 PM | 53.0% | 58.4% | -5.4 |
| Sep 26, 11:30 PM | 56.0% | 62.5% | -6.5 |
| Oct 1, 5:20 PM | 53.1% | 56.5% | -3.4 |
| Oct 1, 5:30 PM | 54.5% | 56.3% | -1.8 |
| Oct 1, 5:50 PM | 55.4% | 57.3% | -1.9 |
| Oct 1, 7:00 PM | 53.1% | 59.7% | -6.6 |
| Oct 2, 7:50 AM | 52.0% | 56.5% | -4.5 |
| Oct 2, 10:00 AM | 52.0% | 58.3% | -6.3 |
| Oct 2, 4:10 PM | 48.5% | 53.5% | -5 |
| Oct 4, 12:10 AM | 52.0% | 57.6% | -5.6 |
| Oct 4, 5:20 PM | 51.0% | 57.6% | -6.6 |
| Oct 4, 5:30 PM | 50.3% | 52.6% | -2.3 |
| Oct 5, 7:10 AM | 52.0% | 51.5% | 0.5 |
| Oct 5, 7:50 AM | 50.0% | 52.4% | -2.4 |
| Oct 5, 8:20 AM | 50.0% | 51.9% | -1.9 |
| Oct 5, 8:30 AM | 51.0% | 52.4% | -1.4 |
| Oct 5, 1:10 PM | 52.0% | 51.5% | 0.5 |
| Oct 5, 5:00 PM | 50.9% | 55.9% | -5 |
| Oct 5, 5:30 PM | 52.0% | 51.0% | 1 |
| Oct 5, 5:40 PM | 52.0% | 51.0% | 1 |
| Oct 5, 5:50 PM | 52.0% | 51.9% | 0.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
0.5 | BetMGM does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 12m ago | |
 BetRivers
|
0.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 57m ago | |
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
0.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 6m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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