Projection 62.4
+0.58pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+15040%40¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+13043.5%43¢
.
Last 5 games vs the upcoming matchup line (40.5)
Teal bars cleared 40.5 — 3 of 5 (60%).
Jeremiyah Love Rushing Yards 40.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 49.5% against 55.0% (an edge of -5.5 points) and is now 50.8% against 56.7% (-5.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 9:30 PM | 49.5% | 55.0% | -5.5 |
| Oct 30, 9:40 PM | 49.0% | 55.0% | -6 |
| Oct 30, 10:10 PM | 49.9% | 54.8% | -4.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 48.9% | 55.0% | -6.1 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 49.0% | 54.4% | -5.4 |
| Oct 30, 10:40 PM | 49.0% | 53.9% | -4.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 50.0% | 54.8% | -4.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 49.0% | 55.0% | -6 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 PM | 50.6% | 54.8% | -4.2 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 PM | 50.3% | 53.7% | -3.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 50.0% | 55.0% | -5 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 AM | 48.0% | 54.1% | -6.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 AM | 49.0% | 51.9% | -2.9 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 AM | 49.0% | 51.7% | -2.7 |
| Oct 31, 2:20 AM | 48.0% | 51.6% | -3.6 |
| Oct 31, 3:40 AM | 48.0% | 52.4% | -4.4 |
| Oct 31, 3:50 AM | 48.0% | 52.2% | -4.2 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 AM | 50.0% | 53.1% | -3.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:10 AM | 51.0% | 52.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 4:20 AM | 50.0% | 52.8% | -2.8 |
| Oct 31, 5:00 AM | 52.0% | 52.8% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 5:10 AM | 51.0% | 52.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 5:20 AM | 50.0% | 52.2% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 6:30 AM | 51.0% | 51.6% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 6:40 AM | 51.0% | 51.5% | -0.5 |
| Oct 31, 6:50 AM | 50.0% | 51.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 31, 7:00 AM | 50.0% | 51.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 31, 7:10 AM | 50.3% | 51.5% | -1.2 |
| Oct 31, 11:20 AM | 50.0% | 52.6% | -2.6 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 PM | 52.0% | 51.5% | 0.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:00 PM | 50.0% | 52.1% | -2.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 52.0% | 53.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 52.0% | 52.6% | -0.6 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 PM | 51.2% | 52.6% | -1.4 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 PM | 51.0% | 58.7% | -7.7 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 52.0% | 58.3% | -6.3 |
| Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 52.0% | 53.1% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 3:20 PM | 52.3% | 55.0% | -2.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:30 PM | 52.8% | 58.1% | -5.3 |
| Oct 31, 3:40 PM | 52.5% | 58.3% | -5.8 |
| Oct 31, 5:00 PM | 49.4% | 56.5% | -7.1 |
| Oct 31, 2:32 PM | 50.8% | 56.7% | -5.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing jeremiyah love rushing yards are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 40.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 40.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 1h ago | ||
|
|
40.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fanatics Sportsbook last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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