Luther Burden — Receptions
Projection 4.1
+1.55pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+14141.5%41¢
against
Stoiximan's
+12245%45¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (4.5)
Teal bars cleared 4.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).
Luther Burden Receptions 4.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 48.0% against 46.9% (an edge of 1.1 points) and is now 43.7% against 44.1% (-0.4 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 5:30 PM | 48.0% | 46.9% | 1.1 |
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 45.1% | 45.9% | -0.8 |
| Oct 27, 9:30 PM | 46.0% | 48.1% | -2.1 |
| Oct 27, 10:00 PM | 46.0% | 48.1% | -2.1 |
| Oct 28, 12:00 AM | 48.8% | 47.3% | 1.5 |
| Oct 28, 8:30 AM | 44.2% | 48.1% | -3.9 |
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 42.8% | 45.1% | -2.3 |
| Oct 28, 6:50 PM | 45.5% | 46.5% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 1:20 AM | 45.1% | 48.1% | -3 |
| Oct 29, 2:40 AM | 45.5% | 46.4% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 46.4% | 46.7% | -0.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 AM | 44.7% | 46.7% | -2 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 45.5% | 46.9% | -1.4 |
| Oct 29, 2:30 PM | 44.5% | 46.8% | -2.3 |
| Oct 29, 2:40 PM | 44.7% | 46.5% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 3:40 PM | 46.7% | 43.5% | 3.2 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 PM | 46.4% | 43.5% | 2.9 |
| Oct 29, 4:50 PM | 44.7% | 44.1% | 0.6 |
| Oct 29, 5:00 PM | 45.3% | 46.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 29, 8:00 PM | 43.7% | 45.9% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 44.1% | 46.9% | -2.8 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 AM | 42.8% | 42.0% | 0.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 43.7% | 48.4% | -4.7 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 43.3% | 44.7% | -1.4 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 43.3% | 45.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 30, 8:30 PM | 44.2% | 46.1% | -1.9 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 47.8% | 46.9% | 0.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 45.1% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 49.2% | 46.1% | 3.1 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 PM | 49.5% | 46.1% | 3.4 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 PM | 48.6% | 46.9% | 1.7 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 48.8% | 46.1% | 2.7 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 AM | 44.1% | 46.1% | -2 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 AM | 45.5% | 45.9% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 PM | 43.7% | 45.9% | -2.2 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 48.6% | 41.0% | 7.6 |
| Oct 31, 2:50 PM | 50.0% | 41.0% | 9 |
| Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 43.4% | 41.5% | 1.9 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 44.1% | 25.0% | 19.1 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 44.8% | 35.0% | 9.8 |
| Oct 31, 8:50 PM | 45.9% | 44.1% | 1.8 |
| Oct 31, 9:00 PM | 43.3% | 42.6% | 0.7 |
| Oct 31, 5:46 PM | 43.7% | 44.1% | -0.4 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing luther burden receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 1h ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
4.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 5h ago | |
 Bovada
|
4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 1d ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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