Jayden Daniels — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.5
+2.4pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
-30875.5%75¢
against
Rebet's
-35778.1%78¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
Jayden Daniels Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 42.3% against 45.0% (an edge of -2.7 points) and is now 42.7% against 44.4% (-1.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 1:00 AM | 42.3% | 45.0% | -2.7 |
| Oct 29, 3:00 AM | 43.2% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 AM | 42.7% | 45.5% | -2.8 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 AM | 42.4% | 44.1% | -1.7 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 AM | 42.3% | 44.1% | -1.8 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 PM | 42.2% | 42.0% | 0.2 |
| Oct 29, 3:40 PM | 41.7% | 42.5% | -0.8 |
| Oct 29, 5:40 PM | 42.1% | 44.1% | -2 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 PM | 41.7% | 43.8% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 9:30 PM | 43.3% | 40.0% | 3.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:40 PM | 42.8% | 42.9% | -0.1 |
| Oct 29, 9:50 PM | 42.9% | 39.5% | 3.4 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 43.3% | 42.9% | 0.4 |
| Oct 30, 4:30 AM | 42.9% | 43.5% | -0.6 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 AM | 43.0% | 43.5% | -0.5 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 PM | 42.9% | 43.4% | -0.5 |
| Oct 30, 1:20 PM | 42.9% | 44.1% | -1.2 |
| Oct 30, 1:30 PM | 42.5% | 43.9% | -1.4 |
| Oct 30, 2:20 PM | 42.2% | 45.0% | -2.8 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 42.4% | 44.1% | -1.7 |
| Oct 30, 4:20 PM | 42.2% | 44.1% | -1.9 |
| Oct 30, 4:30 PM | 42.5% | 22.5% | 20 |
| Oct 30, 4:40 PM | 43.0% | 44.6% | -1.6 |
| Oct 30, 8:50 PM | 41.6% | 43.2% | -1.6 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 40.5% | 44.4% | -3.9 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 43.1% | 44.5% | -1.4 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 43.0% | 44.8% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 42.1% | 44.8% | -2.7 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 PM | 41.6% | 44.8% | -3.2 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 AM | 43.1% | 44.8% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:20 AM | 41.0% | 43.4% | -2.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 PM | 41.7% | 44.1% | -2.4 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 42.7% | 42.9% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 1:17 PM | 42.7% | 44.4% | -1.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing jayden daniels passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 3h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 13h ago | ||
 FanDuel
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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