Caleb Williams — Passing Yards
Projection 230.8
+3.49pp vs fair:
Novig
prices the over at
+11546.5%47¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
-10551.2%51¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (224.5)
Teal bars cleared 224.5 — 8 of 10 (80%).
Caleb Williams Passing Yards 224.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 50.0% against 55.0% (an edge of -5 points) and is now 48.4% against 53.3% (-4.9 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 6:10 PM | 50.0% | 55.0% | -5 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 52.0% | 54.0% | -2 |
| Oct 31, 9:00 AM | 45.7% | 51.9% | -6.2 |
| Oct 31, 11:00 AM | 45.3% | 51.9% | -6.6 |
| Oct 31, 11:10 AM | 51.5% | 51.9% | -0.4 |
| Oct 31, 2:29 PM | 48.4% | 53.3% | -4.9 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing caleb williams passing yards are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hard Rock Bet
|
224.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 7h ago | ||
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
224.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 45m ago | ||
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
224.5 | Polymarket does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 48m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
Unlock fair value and every gap with Premium81 more books behind Premium
Free accounts see 3 books on a prop. Premium shows every book and exchange we price, so you can take the best number.
Go PremiumUpdated about 1 hour ago.