Caleb Williams — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.5
+0.7pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+54515.5%16¢
against
Rebet's
+73112%12¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 8 of 10 (80%).
Caleb Williams Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 38.0% against 43.5% (an edge of -5.5 points) and is now 42.0% against 42.7% (-0.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 6:50 PM | 38.0% | 43.5% | -5.5 |
| Oct 27, 9:30 PM | 39.3% | 42.6% | -3.3 |
| Oct 27, 11:30 PM | 40.1% | 42.7% | -2.6 |
| Oct 28, 1:00 AM | 41.0% | 42.6% | -1.6 |
| Oct 28, 1:20 AM | 40.5% | 42.9% | -2.4 |
| Oct 28, 5:00 AM | 41.0% | 43.9% | -2.9 |
| Oct 28, 10:40 AM | 39.6% | 41.9% | -2.3 |
| Oct 28, 6:50 PM | 40.5% | 42.7% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 1:20 AM | 41.0% | 42.0% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 2:30 AM | 40.3% | 42.0% | -1.7 |
| Oct 29, 2:40 AM | 39.8% | 42.0% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 3:30 AM | 40.6% | 42.7% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 AM | 39.3% | 42.8% | -3.5 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 40.2% | 43.5% | -3.3 |
| Oct 29, 2:30 PM | 39.3% | 42.9% | -3.6 |
| Oct 29, 2:40 PM | 40.6% | 42.7% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 8:10 PM | 40.3% | 41.0% | -0.7 |
| Oct 29, 8:20 PM | 40.1% | 43.1% | -3 |
| Oct 29, 8:30 PM | 41.5% | 43.1% | -1.6 |
| Oct 29, 8:40 PM | 39.8% | 41.0% | -1.2 |
| Oct 29, 8:50 PM | 40.8% | 43.1% | -2.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 41.0% | 41.0% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 40.4% | 39.1% | 1.3 |
| Oct 30, 11:10 AM | 39.8% | 42.9% | -3.1 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 AM | 39.9% | 42.9% | -3 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 40.1% | 43.4% | -3.3 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 39.9% | 42.8% | -2.9 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 PM | 38.7% | 42.0% | -3.3 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 40.6% | 42.8% | -2.2 |
| Oct 30, 11:20 PM | 42.2% | 42.7% | -0.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 PM | 40.9% | 42.7% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 41.5% | 42.7% | -1.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:40 AM | 40.9% | 32.6% | 8.3 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 AM | 41.2% | 42.4% | -1.2 |
| Oct 31, 3:50 PM | 39.8% | 42.7% | -2.9 |
| Oct 31, 2:56 PM | 42.0% | 42.7% | -0.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing caleb williams passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 3h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 46m ago | ||
 Hard Rock Bet
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 6h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
Unlock fair value and every gap with Premium23 more books behind Premium
Free accounts see 3 books on a prop. Premium shows every book and exchange we price, so you can take the best number.
Go PremiumUpdated about 1 hour ago.