Josh Downs — Receptions
Projection 3.1
+1.24pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+12744.1%44¢
against
Bovada's
+12544.4%44¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Josh Downs Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 42.6% against 49.0% (an edge of -6.4 points) and is now 42.7% against 45.0% (-2.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 5:10 PM | 42.6% | 49.0% | -6.4 |
| Oct 30, 6:20 PM | 42.2% | 45.7% | -3.5 |
| Oct 30, 6:40 PM | 42.5% | 46.7% | -4.2 |
| Oct 30, 7:00 PM | 42.4% | 46.7% | -4.3 |
| Oct 30, 7:20 PM | 44.1% | 46.1% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 7:50 PM | 43.3% | 45.1% | -1.8 |
| Oct 30, 8:50 PM | 42.2% | 42.9% | -0.7 |
| Oct 30, 10:10 PM | 39.7% | 45.7% | -6 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 39.4% | 44.1% | -4.7 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 40.0% | 44.1% | -4.1 |
| Oct 30, 10:50 PM | 40.4% | 46.1% | -5.7 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 41.5% | 44.4% | -2.9 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 39.2% | 44.6% | -5.4 |
| Oct 31, 12:50 AM | 42.2% | 44.7% | -2.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 AM | 44.5% | 45.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 AM | 44.8% | 46.5% | -1.7 |
| Oct 31, 8:10 AM | 43.3% | 46.3% | -3 |
| Oct 31, 8:20 AM | 42.2% | 46.1% | -3.9 |
| Oct 31, 1:00 PM | 42.7% | 44.1% | -1.4 |
| Oct 31, 1:10 PM | 43.3% | 44.1% | -0.8 |
| Oct 31, 2:20 PM | 41.5% | 44.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 31, 2:30 PM | 42.3% | 44.9% | -2.6 |
| Oct 31, 2:40 PM | 43.2% | 44.1% | -0.9 |
| Oct 31, 2:50 PM | 43.1% | 46.9% | -3.8 |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM | 43.4% | 47.2% | -3.8 |
| Oct 31, 4:50 PM | 42.2% | 46.9% | -4.7 |
| Oct 31, 5:30 PM | 42.5% | 45.0% | -2.5 |
| Oct 31, 5:40 PM | 42.8% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Oct 31, 7:40 PM | 43.5% | 46.5% | -3 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 43.7% | 45.5% | -1.8 |
| Oct 31, 10:10 PM | 43.3% | 46.9% | -3.6 |
| Nov 1, 1:20 AM | 42.2% | 46.9% | -4.7 |
| Nov 1, 3:30 AM | 43.0% | 45.5% | -2.5 |
| Nov 1, 4:50 AM | 42.7% | 45.0% | -2.3 |
| Nov 1, 5:00 AM | 41.9% | 45.0% | -3.1 |
| Nov 1, 1:26 AM | 42.7% | 45.0% | -2.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing josh downs receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 3.5 | Bet99 does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 12h ago | |
 BetRivers
|
3.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 1d ago | |
|
Bovada
|
3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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