Mark Andrews — Receptions
Projection 3.3
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Mark Andrews Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 60.6% against 61.4% (an edge of -0.8 points) and is now 55.6% against 56.1% (-0.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2:40 PM | 60.6% | 61.4% | -0.8 |
| Sep 27, 2:50 PM | 60.6% | 69.2% | -8.6 |
| Sep 27, 3:00 PM | 61.5% | 67.7% | -6.2 |
| Sep 27, 8:40 PM | 58.6% | 63.0% | -4.4 |
| Sep 27, 9:20 PM | 51.8% | 58.1% | -6.3 |
| Sep 27, 9:40 PM | 38.2% | 51.6% | -13.4 |
| Sep 30, 1:40 PM | 62.0% | 66.0% | -4 |
| Sep 30, 1:50 PM | 59.9% | 64.0% | -4.1 |
| Sep 30, 2:40 PM | 59.7% | 59.0% | 0.7 |
| Sep 30, 6:20 PM | 58.4% | 62.4% | -4 |
| Oct 1, 2:00 AM | 57.5% | 55.8% | 1.7 |
| Oct 1, 4:50 PM | 56.7% | 58.0% | -1.3 |
| Oct 1, 6:40 PM | 56.7% | 57.3% | -0.6 |
| Oct 1, 9:00 PM | 57.5% | 58.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 2, 9:20 PM | 56.7% | 57.1% | -0.4 |
| Oct 3, 5:20 PM | 58.4% | 56.0% | 2.4 |
| Oct 4, 3:20 PM | 58.6% | 58.0% | 0.6 |
| Oct 4, 4:00 PM | 57.5% | 56.5% | 1 |
| Oct 4, 4:30 PM | 54.5% | 58.0% | -3.5 |
| Oct 4, 4:40 PM | 58.9% | 58.0% | 0.9 |
| Oct 4, 4:50 PM | 57.9% | 58.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 4, 5:00 PM | 55.4% | 62.0% | -6.6 |
| Oct 4, 5:10 PM | 49.0% | 51.9% | -2.9 |
| Oct 4, 5:20 PM | 50.0% | 53.1% | -3.1 |
| Oct 4, 5:30 PM | 42.2% | 44.1% | -1.9 |
| Oct 4, 5:40 PM | 41.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Oct 4, 6:00 PM | 61.8% | 61.0% | 0.8 |
| Oct 6, 11:10 PM | 57.2% | 58.0% | -0.8 |
| Oct 6, 11:20 PM | 55.3% | 58.0% | -2.7 |
| Oct 6, 11:30 PM | 55.1% | 57.1% | -2 |
| Oct 7, 6:30 AM | 53.0% | 55.6% | -2.6 |
| Oct 7, 6:40 AM | 53.2% | 53.9% | -0.7 |
| Oct 7, 11:00 AM | 54.2% | 55.9% | -1.7 |
| Oct 8, 3:50 PM | 52.2% | 56.0% | -3.8 |
| Oct 8, 4:00 PM | 50.0% | 57.3% | -7.3 |
| Oct 8, 5:10 PM | 53.1% | 53.1% | 0 |
| Oct 9, 4:10 AM | 56.7% | 53.3% | 3.4 |
| Oct 9, 4:40 PM | 54.3% | 51.9% | 2.4 |
| Oct 9, 5:00 PM | 54.5% | 51.0% | 3.5 |
| Oct 9, 5:10 PM | 53.2% | 52.5% | 0.7 |
| Oct 9, 5:30 PM | 55.4% | 53.3% | 2.1 |
| Oct 9, 5:40 PM | 55.1% | 55.9% | -0.8 |
| Oct 9, 7:50 PM | 57.2% | 56.1% | 1.1 |
| Oct 10, 12:50 PM | 57.5% | 57.3% | 0.2 |
| Oct 10, 2:20 PM | 54.2% | 56.7% | -2.5 |
| Oct 10, 2:40 PM | 56.7% | 57.4% | -0.7 |
| Oct 10, 5:50 PM | 53.3% | 56.8% | -3.5 |
| Oct 10, 7:30 PM | 55.6% | 56.1% | -0.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BetMGM
|
3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 17h ago | ||
 BetRivers
|
3.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 2d ago | |
| Courtside | 4.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Courtside last repriced this 1d ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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