Joshua Palmer — First Touchdown
How this price has moved at 0.5
Joshua Palmer First Touchdown 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 3.7% against 3.5% (an edge of 0.2 points) and is now 3.7% against 3.5% (0.2 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 12:20 AM | 3.7% | 3.5% | 0.2 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Yes | No | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
Polymarket does not price the no | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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