Demario Douglas — Receptions

Projection 3.6

+1.01pp vs fair: Polymarket prices the over at -10050%50¢ against Pinnacle's +10249.5%50¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)

Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).

Demario Douglas Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 34.8% against 37.0% (an edge of -2.2 points) and is now 48.9% against 50.1% (-1.2 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time	Book consensus, de-vigged	Prediction market	Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 4:00 AM	34.8%	37.0%	-2.2
Oct 29, 2:20 AM	41.3%	37.0%	4.3
Oct 29, 8:30 AM	35.6%	37.0%	-1.4
Oct 29, 10:00 AM	35.1%	37.0%	-1.9
Oct 29, 4:40 PM	36.2%	39.9%	-3.7
Oct 29, 5:10 PM	36.8%	41.3%	-4.5
Oct 29, 7:00 PM	42.5%	46.9%	-4.4
Oct 29, 7:10 PM	42.1%	46.8%	-4.7
Oct 29, 8:00 PM	44.4%	46.7%	-2.3
Oct 29, 8:10 PM	44.8%	46.5%	-1.7
Oct 29, 8:20 PM	43.7%	46.9%	-3.2
Oct 29, 8:30 PM	43.7%	45.9%	-2.2
Oct 29, 8:40 PM	43.8%	45.9%	-2.1
Oct 29, 9:30 PM	42.2%	45.5%	-3.3
Oct 29, 9:40 PM	41.7%	45.4%	-3.7
Oct 29, 10:30 PM	43.8%	45.7%	-1.9
Oct 30, 4:00 AM	44.1%	45.0%	-0.9
Oct 30, 4:40 AM	43.4%	45.2%	-1.8
Oct 30, 5:10 AM	43.7%	46.3%	-2.6
Oct 30, 5:30 AM	46.5%	46.3%	0.2
Oct 30, 5:50 AM	43.1%	45.7%	-2.6
Oct 30, 6:00 AM	46.5%	45.9%	0.6
Oct 30, 7:00 AM	43.3%	49.5%	-6.2
Oct 30, 7:10 AM	42.8%	45.5%	-2.7
Oct 30, 8:30 AM	44.6%	44.1%	0.5
Oct 30, 10:00 AM	44.9%	44.8%	0.1
Oct 30, 10:10 AM	44.1%	45.0%	-0.9
Oct 30, 10:50 AM	43.4%	45.0%	-1.6
Oct 30, 11:40 AM	42.7%	44.1%	-1.4
Oct 30, 11:50 AM	43.0%	45.0%	-2
Oct 30, 12:30 PM	44.0%	44.1%	-0.1
Oct 30, 1:00 PM	43.3%	47.0%	-3.7
Oct 30, 1:30 PM	43.5%	45.9%	-2.4
Oct 30, 1:40 PM	42.5%	47.4%	-4.9
Oct 30, 1:50 PM	42.7%	47.0%	-4.3
Oct 30, 2:20 PM	43.8%	45.9%	-2.1
Oct 30, 2:30 PM	45.5%	45.7%	-0.2
Oct 30, 3:20 PM	44.2%	45.5%	-1.3
Oct 30, 3:50 PM	45.5%	45.0%	0.5
Oct 30, 4:00 PM	43.8%	47.3%	-3.5
Oct 30, 4:10 PM	46.2%	48.8%	-2.6
Oct 30, 4:20 PM	49.0%	49.0%	0
Oct 30, 4:30 PM	48.1%	51.0%	-2.9
Oct 30, 4:50 PM	49.5%	50.1%	-0.6
Oct 31, 4:00 PM	46.4%	49.0%	-2.6
Oct 31, 5:00 PM	48.8%	51.5%	-2.7
Oct 31, 5:10 PM	50.0%	51.2%	-1.2
Oct 31, 5:20 PM	51.2%	51.8%	-0.6
Oct 31, 5:40 PM	49.7%	51.0%	-1.3
Oct 31, 5:50 PM	49.2%	51.0%	-1.8
Oct 31, 6:00 PM	46.4%	50.4%	-4
Oct 31, 6:10 PM	49.0%	50.0%	-1
Oct 31, 6:20 PM	48.8%	49.5%	-0.7
Oct 31, 6:40 PM	46.7%	50.0%	-3.3
Oct 31, 10:00 PM	49.1%	50.0%	-0.9
Oct 31, 11:10 PM	48.0%	50.5%	-2.5
Nov 1, 12:20 AM	49.0%	50.1%	-1.1
Oct 31, 8:54 PM	48.9%	50.1%	-1.2

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing demario douglas receptions are still live.

Every venue pricing Demario Douglas Receptions
Venue	Line	Over	Under	Vs best	Age
Bet99	3.5	-115 53.5%	-115 53.5%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Bet99 last repriced this 7h ago
BetMGM	3.5	-105 51.2%	-125 55.6%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	BetMGM last repriced this 6h ago
BetRivers	3.5	-150 60%	— BetRivers does not price the under	Premium to see the gap to the best price	BetRivers last repriced this 7h ago

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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Updated about 7 hours ago.