Projection 0.2
How this price has moved at 0.5
Xavier Hutchinson Anytime Touchdown 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 26.7% against 25.0% (an edge of 1.7 points) and is now 26.7% against 25.0% (1.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 6:00 PM | 26.7% | 25.0% | 1.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Yes | No | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Bovada does not price the no | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 25m ago | |
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DraftKings does not price the no | Premium to see the gap to the best price | DraftKings last repriced this 50m ago | |
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Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 54m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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