Chase Brown — Receptions
Projection 3.2
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
Chase Brown Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 44.1% against 48.3% (an edge of -4.2 points) and is now 50.5% against 75.0% (-24.5 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2:40 AM | 44.1% | 48.3% | -4.2 |
| Sep 27, 1:30 PM | 47.2% | 47.0% | 0.2 |
| Sep 27, 1:40 PM | 44.1% | 46.7% | -2.6 |
| Sep 27, 3:50 PM | 46.5% | 49.0% | -2.5 |
| Sep 27, 4:10 PM | 46.3% | 48.0% | -1.7 |
| Sep 27, 4:20 PM | 46.7% | 48.8% | -2.1 |
| Sep 27, 4:40 PM | 46.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Sep 27, 6:00 PM | 34.9% | 31.0% | 3.9 |
| Sep 27, 6:10 PM | 27.6% | 27.0% | 0.6 |
| Sep 27, 6:30 PM | 27.8% | 75.0% | -47.2 |
| Sep 27, 7:10 PM | 24.7% | 16.0% | 8.7 |
| Oct 1, 3:20 AM | 46.0% | 46.1% | -0.1 |
| Oct 1, 3:30 AM | 46.0% | 47.4% | -1.4 |
| Oct 1, 5:10 PM | 44.7% | 46.1% | -1.4 |
| Oct 2, 10:20 PM | 42.5% | 46.9% | -4.4 |
| Oct 3, 4:50 PM | 43.7% | 44.1% | -0.4 |
| Oct 4, 4:30 AM | 44.4% | 46.3% | -1.9 |
| Oct 4, 2:10 PM | 43.8% | 45.0% | -1.2 |
| Oct 4, 3:30 PM | 44.6% | 46.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 4, 3:40 PM | 43.3% | 45.6% | -2.3 |
| Oct 4, 5:10 PM | 43.7% | 63.0% | -19.3 |
| Oct 4, 5:30 PM | 53.5% | 75.0% | -21.5 |
| Oct 4, 5:40 PM | 50.5% | 75.0% | -24.5 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportzino | 3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Sportzino last repriced this 5h ago | ||
| Sportzino | 4.5 | Sportzino does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Sportzino last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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