Aaron Jones — Rushing Yards
Projection 28.8
+0.12pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+37621%21¢
against
Rebet's
+42019.2%19¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (29.5)
Teal bars cleared 29.5 — 9 of 10 (90%).
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards 29.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 51.2% against 54.8% (an edge of -3.6 points) and is now 50.0% against 51.0% (-1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 7:10 PM | 51.2% | 54.8% | -3.6 |
| Oct 30, 8:50 PM | 50.2% | 53.7% | -3.5 |
| Oct 30, 9:40 PM | 50.3% | 53.7% | -3.4 |
| Oct 30, 9:50 PM | 51.1% | 53.7% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 11:00 PM | 50.9% | 52.8% | -1.9 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 50.5% | 54.8% | -4.3 |
| Oct 31, 3:47 PM | 50.0% | 51.0% | -1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing aaron jones rushing yards are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dst Propbuilder | 29.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 2h ago | ||
 FanDuel
|
29.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 1h ago | ||
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
29.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 46m ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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