Projection 3.0
+1.79pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+16338%38¢
against
Fanatics Sportsbook's
+13542.6%43¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (3.5)
Teal bars cleared 3.5 — 4 of 10 (40%).
D'Andre Swift Receptions 3.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 44.4% against 41.5% (an edge of 2.9 points) and is now 42.8% against 41.0% (1.8 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 11:00 AM | 44.4% | 41.5% | 2.9 |
| Oct 31, 11:10 AM | 45.3% | 42.0% | 3.3 |
| Oct 31, 2:10 PM | 41.9% | 42.1% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 2:50 PM | 46.9% | 41.0% | 5.9 |
| Oct 31, 3:00 PM | 43.8% | 42.1% | 1.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:10 PM | 50.2% | 42.7% | 7.5 |
| Oct 31, 4:30 PM | 41.2% | 39.1% | 2.1 |
| Oct 31, 2:47 PM | 42.8% | 41.0% | 1.8 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing d'andre swift receptions are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 3.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 3h ago | ||
|
|
3.5 | BetRivers does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetRivers last repriced this 2h ago | |
|
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 1h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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