Sam Darnold — Passing Touchdowns

Projection 1.7

+7.93pp vs fair: Polymarket prices the over at +77011.5%11¢ against Rebet's +51216.3%16¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)

Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).

Sam Darnold Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 48.1% against 53.7% (an edge of -5.6 points) and is now 49.5% against 51.7% (-2.2 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time	Book consensus, de-vigged	Prediction market	Edge in percentage points
Oct 27, 5:00 PM	48.1%	53.7%	-5.6
Oct 27, 5:30 PM	48.3%	52.8%	-4.5
Oct 27, 6:50 PM	53.3%	53.9%	-0.6
Oct 27, 7:00 PM	52.0%	53.4%	-1.4
Oct 27, 11:00 PM	50.5%	53.9%	-3.4
Oct 27, 11:10 PM	50.9%	54.5%	-3.6
Oct 28, 12:00 AM	47.6%	50.5%	-2.9
Oct 28, 5:00 AM	50.9%	53.7%	-2.8
Oct 28, 6:50 PM	50.7%	53.7%	-3
Oct 29, 1:20 AM	49.4%	53.5%	-4.1
Oct 29, 1:50 AM	47.1%	50.0%	-2.9
Oct 29, 2:40 AM	48.0%	53.1%	-5.1
Oct 29, 7:00 AM	50.9%	53.1%	-2.2
Oct 29, 9:10 AM	50.7%	53.1%	-2.4
Oct 29, 2:20 PM	51.0%	54.1%	-3.1
Oct 29, 2:30 PM	50.8%	51.9%	-1.1
Oct 29, 2:40 PM	50.5%	52.4%	-1.9
Oct 29, 3:20 PM	50.0%	51.0%	-1
Oct 29, 4:00 PM	47.8%	51.0%	-3.2
Oct 29, 5:10 PM	49.2%	48.1%	1.1
Oct 29, 5:50 PM	49.0%	27.0%	22
Oct 29, 7:30 PM	49.5%	51.9%	-2.4
Oct 29, 8:00 PM	46.9%	49.0%	-2.1
Oct 29, 8:10 PM	46.9%	48.1%	-1.2
Oct 29, 8:20 PM	47.1%	49.0%	-1.9
Oct 29, 8:50 PM	48.7%	51.5%	-2.8
Oct 29, 9:00 PM	49.2%	48.1%	1.1
Oct 29, 11:10 PM	47.6%	46.9%	0.7
Oct 30, 1:30 AM	49.5%	48.1%	1.4
Oct 30, 3:50 AM	47.5%	49.0%	-1.5
Oct 30, 4:00 AM	48.6%	50.5%	-1.9
Oct 30, 11:30 AM	45.5%	48.7%	-3.2
Oct 30, 11:50 AM	49.5%	51.0%	-1.5
Oct 30, 1:40 PM	47.7%	52.4%	-4.7
Oct 30, 2:20 PM	49.0%	51.0%	-2
Oct 30, 4:00 PM	49.6%	51.9%	-2.3
Oct 30, 11:00 PM	47.6%	50.0%	-2.4
Oct 30, 11:30 PM	46.5%	51.0%	-4.5
Oct 30, 11:40 PM	46.8%	52.8%	-6
Oct 31, 1:30 AM	49.2%	50.0%	-0.8
Oct 31, 1:50 AM	50.0%	50.0%	0
Oct 31, 11:10 AM	46.5%	51.5%	-5
Oct 31, 2:40 PM	47.1%	51.0%	-3.9
Oct 31, 9:20 PM	50.8%	26.5%	24.3
Oct 31, 10:00 PM	50.0%	50.0%	0
Nov 1, 1:50 AM	49.2%	39.7%	9.5
Nov 1, 2:00 AM	49.8%	39.2%	10.6
Nov 1, 2:10 AM	49.7%	26.0%	23.7
Nov 1, 9:00 AM	46.5%	39.5%	7
Nov 1, 9:10 AM	46.5%	26.5%	20
Nov 1, 9:30 AM	49.5%	39.6%	9.9
Nov 1, 10:50 AM	49.6%	50.0%	-0.4
Nov 1, 3:20 PM	49.4%	51.7%	-2.3
Nov 1, 3:41 PM	49.5%	51.7%	-2.2

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing sam darnold passing touchdowns are still live.

Every venue pricing Sam Darnold Passing Touchdowns
Venue	Line	Over	Under	Vs best	Age
Bet99	1.5	+100 50%	-135 57.4%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Bet99 last repriced this 11h ago
BetMGM	1.5	-115 53.5%	-115 53.5%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	BetMGM last repriced this 2d ago
Stoiximan	1.5	+105 48.8%	-128 56.1%	Premium to see the gap to the best price	Stoiximan last repriced this 11h ago

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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All Passing Touchdowns props Prop Edge Tool

Updated about 11 hours ago.