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Baker Mayfield — Passing Touchdowns

Projection 1.5

+0.72pp vs fair: PolymarketPolymarket prices the over at +13342.9%43¢ against Stoiximan's +13243.1%43¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)

Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 2 of 10 (20%).

Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 43.7% against 46.9% (an edge of -3.2 points) and is now 43.1% against 44.0% (-0.9 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 4:50 AM 43.7% 46.9% -3.2
Oct 28, 8:30 AM 44.0% 49.0% -5
Oct 28, 10:00 AM 43.7% 48.5% -4.8
Oct 28, 2:10 PM 41.7% 46.5% -4.8
Oct 28, 4:00 PM 44.4% 48.5% -4.1
Oct 28, 4:10 PM 43.8% 48.5% -4.7
Oct 28, 6:10 PM 44.2% 45.0% -0.8
Oct 28, 6:30 PM 43.3% 44.4% -1.1
Oct 28, 8:10 PM 43.8% 44.2% -0.4
Oct 28, 8:20 PM 43.7% 44.4% -0.7
Oct 28, 8:30 PM 43.8% 44.2% -0.4
Oct 28, 8:50 PM 46.9% 46.5% 0.4
Oct 28, 9:00 PM 45.4% 46.4% -1
Oct 28, 11:20 PM 44.1% 46.7% -2.6
Oct 29, 12:00 AM 45.9% 45.9% 0
Oct 29, 3:20 AM 44.2% 45.6% -1.4
Oct 29, 3:30 AM 43.3% 45.5% -2.2
Oct 29, 3:40 AM 45.9% 46.1% -0.2
Oct 29, 4:00 AM 44.5% 49.9% -5.4
Oct 29, 4:10 AM 44.5% 49.4% -4.9
Oct 29, 4:20 AM 47.2% 45.7% 1.5
Oct 29, 7:10 AM 45.0% 47.6% -2.6
Oct 29, 12:00 PM 43.5% 46.1% -2.6
Oct 29, 1:30 PM 42.9% 45.7% -2.8
Oct 29, 1:40 PM 44.7% 46.1% -1.4
Oct 29, 4:00 PM 43.7% 48.5% -4.8
Oct 29, 4:10 PM 42.9% 48.5% -5.6
Oct 29, 5:10 PM 40.6% 48.5% -7.9
Oct 29, 7:20 PM 43.7% 48.5% -4.8
Oct 29, 7:40 PM 45.0% 48.3% -3.3
Oct 29, 7:50 PM 45.2% 48.5% -3.3
Oct 29, 9:00 PM 45.3% 48.1% -2.8
Oct 29, 9:10 PM 42.2% 48.3% -6.1
Oct 30, 3:30 AM 44.3% 46.9% -2.6
Oct 30, 3:40 AM 45.4% 47.6% -2.2
Oct 30, 4:00 AM 41.2% 46.7% -5.5
Oct 30, 4:40 AM 41.3% 48.1% -6.8
Oct 30, 6:00 AM 41.7% 48.1% -6.4
Oct 30, 11:10 AM 44.6% 48.5% -3.9
Oct 30, 12:50 PM 44.4% 47.3% -2.9
Oct 30, 1:00 PM 45.0% 50.0% -5
Oct 30, 1:10 PM 39.2% 49.3% -10.1
Oct 30, 1:20 PM 44.2% 48.5% -4.3
Oct 30, 1:40 PM 42.1% 48.3% -6.2
Oct 30, 2:00 PM 39.7% 48.3% -8.6
Oct 30, 2:50 PM 43.3% 47.9% -4.6
Oct 30, 3:20 PM 43.5% 48.1% -4.6
Oct 30, 3:50 PM 43.3% 47.5% -4.2
Oct 30, 4:00 PM 44.6% 46.9% -2.3
Oct 30, 4:10 PM 44.4% 45.0% -0.6
Oct 30, 4:30 PM 39.2% 46.7% -7.5
Oct 30, 4:40 PM 43.8% 47.6% -3.8
Oct 30, 4:50 PM 43.6% 46.7% -3.1
Oct 31, 12:30 AM 43.2% 48.1% -4.9
Oct 31, 6:10 AM 42.4% 48.1% -5.7
Oct 31, 10:20 AM 45.2% 42.9% 2.3
Oct 31, 12:10 PM 44.5% 44.1% 0.4
Oct 31, 12:20 PM 44.1% 44.9% -0.8
Oct 31, 1:30 PM 39.7% 44.9% -5.2
Oct 31, 4:20 PM 44.0% 44.6% -0.6
Oct 31, 4:30 PM 44.4% 44.1% 0.3
Oct 31, 6:10 PM 43.6% 44.0% -0.4
Oct 31, 8:00 PM 42.8% 44.1% -1.3
Oct 31, 8:10 PM 42.5% 42.9% -0.4
Oct 31, 5:46 PM 43.1% 44.0% -0.9

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing baker mayfield passing touchdowns are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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