Geno Smith — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.6
+0.21pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+11346.9%47¢
against
Sportzino's
+11546.5%47¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 3 of 10 (30%).
Geno Smith Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 43.2% against 51.9% (an edge of -8.7 points) and is now 47.2% against 47.3% (-0.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 43.2% | 51.9% | -8.7 |
| Oct 28, 10:30 PM | 44.8% | 51.9% | -7.1 |
| Oct 28, 10:40 PM | 46.3% | 50.7% | -4.4 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 43.5% | 51.7% | -8.2 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 45.8% | 49.8% | -4 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 AM | 43.9% | 48.1% | -4.2 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 47.6% | 48.1% | -0.5 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 41.9% | 49.0% | -7.1 |
| Oct 29, 6:40 AM | 47.1% | 49.8% | -2.7 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 AM | 46.9% | 49.0% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 PM | 42.5% | 49.0% | -6.5 |
| Oct 29, 8:30 PM | 48.3% | 48.1% | 0.2 |
| Oct 29, 8:40 PM | 46.1% | 50.0% | -3.9 |
| Oct 29, 8:50 PM | 45.0% | 49.4% | -4.4 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 PM | 45.7% | 48.3% | -2.6 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 48.6% | 49.0% | -0.4 |
| Oct 30, 4:10 AM | 46.9% | 46.9% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 4:20 AM | 47.2% | 47.8% | -0.6 |
| Oct 30, 5:50 AM | 41.4% | 46.9% | -5.5 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 AM | 45.9% | 46.9% | -1 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 AM | 43.3% | 46.9% | -3.6 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 PM | 47.2% | 46.9% | 0.3 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 46.9% | 48.3% | -1.4 |
| Oct 30, 3:00 PM | 43.9% | 47.3% | -3.4 |
| Oct 30, 3:10 PM | 44.9% | 47.3% | -2.4 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 49.4% | 47.3% | 2.1 |
| Oct 30, 4:20 PM | 44.5% | 46.5% | -2 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 46.0% | 48.1% | -2.1 |
| Oct 31, 3:20 AM | 49.0% | 46.7% | 2.3 |
| Oct 31, 8:50 AM | 42.7% | 46.9% | -4.2 |
| Oct 31, 1:18 PM | 47.2% | 47.3% | -0.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing geno smith passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 8h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 1h ago | ||
| Fliff | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Fliff last repriced this 1d ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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