Justin Herbert — Passing Yards
Projection 206.8
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (199.5)
Teal bars cleared 199.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
Justin Herbert Passing Yards 199.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 50.0% against 57.1% (an edge of -7.1 points) and is now 49.9% against 55.5% (-5.6 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 8:10 PM | 50.0% | 57.1% | -7.1 |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM | 49.9% | 55.0% | -5.1 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 49.5% | 57.4% | -7.9 |
| Oct 31, 6:00 AM | 50.0% | 57.3% | -7.3 |
| Oct 31, 12:34 PM | 49.9% | 55.5% | -5.6 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing justin herbert passing yards are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kalshi
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
199.5 | Kalshi does not price the under | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Kalshi last repriced this 8h ago | |
 Novig
|
199.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Novig last repriced this 3h ago | ||
 Polymarket
contract market — quotes binary $1/$0 contracts in cents
|
199.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Polymarket last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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