Justin Herbert — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.2
+1.86pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+18635%35¢
against
Stoiximan's
+18734.8%35¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 1 of 10 (10%).
Justin Herbert Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 35.7% against 40.0% (an edge of -4.3 points) and is now 35.3% against 38.0% (-2.7 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 35.7% | 40.0% | -4.3 |
| Oct 28, 7:30 PM | 34.4% | 37.9% | -3.5 |
| Oct 28, 7:40 PM | 36.8% | 37.9% | -1.1 |
| Oct 28, 8:10 PM | 33.1% | 37.9% | -4.8 |
| Oct 28, 9:00 PM | 34.3% | 37.5% | -3.2 |
| Oct 28, 9:20 PM | 33.8% | 35.0% | -1.2 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 34.3% | 37.7% | -3.4 |
| Oct 28, 10:20 PM | 32.9% | 34.0% | -1.1 |
| Oct 28, 10:30 PM | 31.8% | 37.0% | -5.2 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 PM | 33.1% | 37.9% | -4.8 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 AM | 33.0% | 37.3% | -4.3 |
| Oct 29, 3:20 AM | 32.3% | 37.0% | -4.7 |
| Oct 29, 4:00 AM | 32.1% | 35.5% | -3.4 |
| Oct 29, 4:10 AM | 31.7% | 37.6% | -5.9 |
| Oct 29, 4:20 AM | 35.4% | 37.6% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 5:50 AM | 33.0% | 37.0% | -4 |
| Oct 29, 6:00 AM | 32.1% | 35.5% | -3.4 |
| Oct 29, 11:50 AM | 36.2% | 36.0% | 0.2 |
| Oct 29, 12:10 PM | 36.8% | 35.8% | 1 |
| Oct 29, 12:20 PM | 34.3% | 37.9% | -3.6 |
| Oct 29, 1:10 PM | 31.5% | 37.6% | -6.1 |
| Oct 29, 1:40 PM | 34.7% | 37.5% | -2.8 |
| Oct 29, 2:10 PM | 34.3% | 38.0% | -3.7 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 34.0% | 37.0% | -3 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 PM | 33.1% | 36.5% | -3.4 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 PM | 32.2% | 37.0% | -4.8 |
| Oct 29, 3:40 PM | 35.5% | 37.0% | -1.5 |
| Oct 29, 3:50 PM | 35.9% | 38.0% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 8:00 PM | 33.0% | 38.0% | -5 |
| Oct 29, 11:50 PM | 32.8% | 37.6% | -4.8 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 AM | 33.0% | 37.6% | -4.6 |
| Oct 30, 12:50 PM | 35.7% | 38.5% | -2.8 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 36.0% | 37.6% | -1.6 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 35.6% | 38.5% | -2.9 |
| Oct 30, 1:50 PM | 32.7% | 38.8% | -6.1 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 34.8% | 38.0% | -3.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:20 PM | 32.4% | 37.5% | -5.1 |
| Oct 30, 11:50 PM | 31.6% | 37.0% | -5.4 |
| Oct 31, 7:00 AM | 34.0% | 35.5% | -1.5 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 PM | 37.7% | 37.9% | -0.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:30 PM | 35.6% | 38.3% | -2.7 |
| Oct 31, 3:50 PM | 36.0% | 37.0% | -1 |
| Oct 31, 4:00 PM | 36.7% | 35.0% | 1.7 |
| Oct 31, 12:29 PM | 35.3% | 38.0% | -2.7 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing justin herbert passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 10h ago | ||
| Dst Propbuilder | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 34m ago | ||
 FanDuel
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 4h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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