Trevor Lawrence — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 2.2
+1.45pp vs fair:
Polymarket
prices the over at
+19434%34¢
against
Hard Rock Bet's
+17037%37¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (2.5)
Teal bars cleared 2.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).
Trevor Lawrence Passing Touchdowns 2.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 32.7% against 34.0% (an edge of -1.3 points) and is now 35.6% against 34.5% (1.1 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 6:20 AM | 32.7% | 34.0% | -1.3 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 AM | 32.4% | 36.0% | -3.6 |
| Oct 30, 8:20 AM | 33.1% | 34.0% | -0.9 |
| Oct 30, 9:00 AM | 32.8% | 34.0% | -1.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:00 AM | 33.1% | 33.5% | -0.4 |
| Oct 30, 8:40 PM | 30.1% | 39.3% | -9.2 |
| Oct 30, 10:30 PM | 30.2% | 39.4% | -9.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:00 AM | 31.1% | 39.1% | -8 |
| Oct 31, 1:40 AM | 35.3% | 34.0% | 1.3 |
| Oct 31, 8:10 AM | 35.7% | 35.3% | 0.4 |
| Oct 31, 8:20 AM | 35.4% | 34.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 8:50 AM | 34.8% | 36.2% | -1.4 |
| Oct 31, 9:10 AM | 36.2% | 35.0% | 1.2 |
| Oct 31, 11:30 AM | 35.7% | 36.0% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:40 AM | 35.3% | 35.0% | 0.3 |
| Oct 31, 11:50 AM | 35.7% | 34.5% | 1.2 |
| Oct 31, 12:10 PM | 35.5% | 35.1% | 0.4 |
| Oct 31, 2:00 PM | 35.7% | 34.0% | 1.7 |
| Oct 31, 2:10 PM | 36.4% | 35.0% | 1.4 |
| Oct 31, 6:10 PM | 35.9% | 37.0% | -1.1 |
| Oct 31, 4:43 PM | 35.6% | 34.5% | 1.1 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing trevor lawrence passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dst Propbuilder | 2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Dst Propbuilder last repriced this 4h ago | ||
 FanDuel
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | FanDuel last repriced this 2h ago | ||
|
Hard Rock Bet
|
2.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Hard Rock Bet last repriced this 9h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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