Patrick Mahomes — Passing Touchdowns
Projection 1.3
+2.02pp vs fair:
ProphetX
prices the over at
+18035.7%36¢
against
Stoiximan's
+17236.8%37¢
.
Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (1.5)
Teal bars cleared 1.5 — 5 of 10 (50%).
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns 1.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 36.9% against 37.5% (an edge of -0.6 points) and is now 36.7% against 37.0% (-0.3 points).
| Time | Book consensus, de-vigged | Prediction market | Edge in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 10:00 PM | 36.9% | 37.5% | -0.6 |
| Oct 27, 10:20 PM | 37.4% | 38.8% | -1.4 |
| Oct 27, 11:00 PM | 37.2% | 39.8% | -2.6 |
| Oct 27, 11:30 PM | 38.1% | 41.0% | -2.9 |
| Oct 27, 11:40 PM | 38.4% | 41.0% | -2.6 |
| Oct 28, 1:10 AM | 36.6% | 38.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 28, 1:20 AM | 37.2% | 39.1% | -1.9 |
| Oct 28, 1:20 PM | 37.2% | 38.6% | -1.4 |
| Oct 28, 2:00 PM | 35.9% | 36.5% | -0.6 |
| Oct 28, 2:10 PM | 36.5% | 39.1% | -2.6 |
| Oct 28, 2:20 PM | 36.5% | 37.8% | -1.3 |
| Oct 28, 2:40 PM | 37.6% | 37.7% | -0.1 |
| Oct 28, 2:50 PM | 37.4% | 37.7% | -0.3 |
| Oct 28, 3:00 PM | 38.4% | 38.2% | 0.2 |
| Oct 28, 4:00 PM | 36.2% | 37.3% | -1.1 |
| Oct 28, 5:00 PM | 38.3% | 37.9% | 0.4 |
| Oct 28, 8:40 PM | 37.2% | 37.9% | -0.7 |
| Oct 28, 9:50 PM | 39.8% | 38.0% | 1.8 |
| Oct 28, 10:00 PM | 35.9% | 38.2% | -2.3 |
| Oct 28, 11:10 PM | 39.5% | 37.7% | 1.8 |
| Oct 28, 11:20 PM | 34.0% | 38.2% | -4.2 |
| Oct 29, 1:20 AM | 36.6% | 38.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 29, 2:00 AM | 37.0% | 38.0% | -1 |
| Oct 29, 2:50 AM | 39.1% | 38.7% | 0.4 |
| Oct 29, 3:00 AM | 39.9% | 38.5% | 1.4 |
| Oct 29, 3:10 AM | 36.6% | 38.7% | -2.1 |
| Oct 29, 4:50 AM | 35.6% | 37.0% | -1.4 |
| Oct 29, 7:00 AM | 36.5% | 38.8% | -2.3 |
| Oct 29, 9:00 AM | 36.9% | 37.8% | -0.9 |
| Oct 29, 1:50 PM | 37.1% | 39.3% | -2.2 |
| Oct 29, 2:20 PM | 41.9% | 38.6% | 3.3 |
| Oct 30, 6:10 AM | 37.5% | 37.0% | 0.5 |
| Oct 30, 11:30 AM | 36.8% | 38.0% | -1.2 |
| Oct 30, 1:00 PM | 36.8% | 39.1% | -2.3 |
| Oct 30, 1:40 PM | 36.5% | 37.0% | -0.5 |
| Oct 30, 3:50 PM | 39.8% | 40.0% | -0.2 |
| Oct 30, 4:00 PM | 37.5% | 39.1% | -1.6 |
| Oct 31, 12:20 AM | 41.1% | 36.2% | 4.9 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 AM | 34.2% | 37.0% | -2.8 |
| Oct 31, 1:30 AM | 34.0% | 38.0% | -4 |
| Oct 31, 6:10 AM | 36.7% | 36.0% | 0.7 |
| Oct 31, 12:30 PM | 36.2% | 36.5% | -0.3 |
| Oct 31, 1:20 PM | 35.9% | 36.0% | -0.1 |
| Oct 31, 1:50 PM | 36.9% | 36.0% | 0.9 |
| Oct 31, 10:00 PM | 38.4% | 36.5% | 1.9 |
| Nov 1, 1:00 AM | 35.5% | 38.0% | -2.5 |
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM | 37.2% | 36.4% | 0.8 |
| Nov 1, 1:20 AM | 37.6% | 37.0% | 0.6 |
| Nov 1, 1:40 AM | 35.9% | 35.7% | 0.2 |
| Nov 1, 12:30 AM | 36.7% | 37.0% | -0.3 |
Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.
Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing patrick mahomes passing touchdowns are still live.
| Venue | Line | Over | Under | Vs best | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet99 | 1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bet99 last repriced this 1d ago | ||
 BetMGM
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | BetMGM last repriced this 1d ago | ||
 Bovada
|
1.5 | Premium to see the gap to the best price | Bovada last repriced this 2h ago |
Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.
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