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Malik Willis — Passing Touchdowns

Projection 0.9

+0.54pp vs fair: PolymarketPolymarket prices the over at +37621%21¢ against Rebet's +30724.6%25¢ .

Last 10 games vs the upcoming matchup line (0.5)

Teal bars cleared 0.5 — 6 of 10 (60%).

Malik Willis Passing Touchdowns 0.5: the de-vigged book consensus and the prediction-market price over time. Opened at 65.5% against 70.5% (an edge of -5 points) and is now 59.4% against 61.1% (-1.7 points).

De-vigged book consensus against the prediction-market price, by time
Time Book consensus, de-vigged Prediction market Edge in percentage points
Oct 28, 1:10 AM 65.5% 70.5% -5
Oct 28, 2:30 AM 63.3% 67.4% -4.1
Oct 28, 2:50 AM 62.9% 66.4% -3.5
Oct 28, 4:00 AM 64.6% 68.1% -3.5
Oct 28, 10:00 AM 64.6% 65.0% -0.4
Oct 28, 10:40 AM 62.9% 67.4% -4.5
Oct 28, 12:30 PM 63.7% 67.4% -3.7
Oct 28, 3:20 PM 63.2% 66.3% -3.1
Oct 28, 4:00 PM 62.9% 66.1% -3.2
Oct 28, 8:20 PM 64.1% 66.6% -2.5
Oct 28, 8:30 PM 65.3% 66.9% -1.6
Oct 28, 8:50 PM 64.1% 66.5% -2.4
Oct 28, 9:00 PM 64.5% 66.9% -2.4
Oct 28, 11:10 PM 62.9% 66.6% -3.7
Oct 28, 11:20 PM 62.8% 66.6% -3.8
Oct 29, 1:50 AM 62.7% 65.5% -2.8
Oct 29, 2:00 AM 62.1% 64.0% -1.9
Oct 29, 2:10 AM 62.3% 64.0% -1.7
Oct 29, 2:30 AM 62.9% 64.5% -1.6
Oct 29, 4:00 AM 62.9% 64.8% -1.9
Oct 29, 4:10 AM 63.8% 65.0% -1.2
Oct 29, 4:30 AM 63.2% 65.0% -1.8
Oct 29, 7:00 AM 63.6% 65.3% -1.7
Oct 29, 10:00 AM 63.5% 66.0% -2.5
Oct 29, 1:30 PM 63.8% 65.0% -1.2
Oct 29, 2:40 PM 62.9% 64.5% -1.6
Oct 29, 3:20 PM 62.0% 63.0% -1
Oct 29, 3:30 PM 62.0% 63.0% -1
Oct 29, 4:40 PM 62.7% 64.4% -1.7
Oct 29, 5:10 PM 64.1% 65.0% -0.9
Oct 29, 5:50 PM 63.8% 64.5% -0.7
Oct 29, 7:20 PM 63.0% 64.8% -1.8
Oct 29, 8:10 PM 63.1% 63.5% -0.4
Oct 30, 12:10 AM 63.2% 65.0% -1.8
Oct 30, 4:00 AM 63.6% 64.0% -0.4
Oct 30, 11:30 AM 62.9% 64.0% -1.1
Oct 30, 11:40 AM 62.6% 63.5% -0.9
Oct 30, 11:50 AM 61.2% 63.0% -1.8
Oct 30, 1:00 PM 62.1% 65.0% -2.9
Oct 30, 1:20 PM 62.3% 66.4% -4.1
Oct 30, 1:40 PM 62.7% 66.2% -3.5
Oct 30, 2:30 PM 61.7% 66.4% -4.7
Oct 30, 3:50 PM 62.0% 64.2% -2.2
Oct 30, 4:00 PM 63.3% 64.5% -1.2
Oct 31, 12:00 AM 65.3% 65.0% 0.3
Oct 31, 10:10 AM 62.0% 64.0% -2
Oct 31, 12:30 PM 61.4% 64.5% -3.1
Oct 31, 4:00 PM 61.7% 64.0% -2.3
Oct 31, 6:10 PM 64.3% 64.0% 0.3
Oct 31, 6:20 PM 62.8% 64.9% -2.1
Oct 31, 7:50 PM 61.6% 64.0% -2.4
Oct 31, 10:00 PM 63.5% 64.5% -1
Oct 31, 11:10 PM 64.1% 65.0% -0.9
Nov 1, 2:00 AM 64.7% 64.0% 0.7
Nov 1, 3:40 AM 63.5% 64.0% -0.5
Nov 1, 11:10 AM 62.9% 65.0% -2.1
Nov 1, 11:50 AM 61.6% 65.0% -3.4
Nov 1, 12:00 PM 62.5% 65.0% -2.5
Nov 1, 1:10 PM 61.8% 64.0% -2.2
Nov 1, 1:20 PM 62.2% 65.0% -2.8
Nov 1, 1:30 PM 62.0% 64.0% -2
Nov 1, 1:40 PM 61.3% 62.5% -1.2
Nov 1, 2:00 PM 60.6% 64.0% -3.4
Nov 1, 2:10 PM 60.2% 62.0% -1.8
Nov 1, 2:40 PM 58.5% 62.1% -3.6
Nov 1, 2:50 PM 60.4% 62.0% -1.6
Nov 1, 3:00 PM 59.6% 60.6% -1
Nov 1, 3:10 PM 59.6% 60.8% -1.2
Nov 1, 3:30 PM 58.8% 62.0% -3.2
Nov 1, 3:50 PM 59.4% 61.2% -1.8
Nov 1, 4:00 PM 58.4% 62.4% -4
Nov 1, 5:00 PM 60.4% 59.5% 0.9
Nov 1, 5:20 PM 59.0% 61.2% -2.2
Nov 1, 3:40 PM 59.4% 61.1% -1.7

Line tab: each venue's quote every 10 minutes since it appeared. Book prices are de-vigged multiplicatively and taken as a median; the prediction-market price is the price you would actually pay, not de-vigged. The shaded area is the gap between them.

Waiting for fresh prices — fewer than 3 venues on every venue pricing malik willis passing touchdowns are still live.

Quotes a venue has stopped maintaining are removed from this comparison, not greyed · a venue whose two sides do not price the same bet is left off this row · a venue quoting only one side of a bet is kept and counted — that single price is real, it just has no mate to check it against · no venue in this feed publishes the size resting behind its quote, so none is shown.

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All Passing Touchdowns props Prop Edge Tool

Updated 42 minutes ago.